08/31/2002 Archived Entry: "House 2002 Analysis-- Redistricting"
MS:3rd-CD-- Shows vs. Pickering
A slight lean toward Pickering. Since the GOP redistricting map was chosen, it's been tough to envision Pickering losing. WorldCom going bankrupt has hurt him some, but not tremendously. He's got more than enough money, and will seemingly win-- though by less than 5 percent probably. Shows has said he intends to run again in 2004 regardless of the 2002 outcome; he's hoping that the LA-chosen map by then becomes law, superseding the federal (DOJ-rigged) map that was chosen. Lots of blood spilled in DC between Pickering and the CBC, and a USSC hearing will occur at some time soon in regards to the federal drawing of the maps in this CD.
CT:5th-CD-- Maloney vs. Johnson
A toss-up. Previously, I'd had this one under a slight lean to slight lean to Maloney, but at this time, I lean it slightly toward Johnson. The GOP's recent media buy in CT swings it back to her favor. The cash lead of Johnson over Maloney is significant, and probably reflects the fact that the lobbyists are betting on her winning this seat; If not now then in 2004-- when Maloney has stated he won't run due to term-limits. The Rove/Bush WH is intent on impacting in CT, going as far as protending serious hopes of taking the state in 2004-- they seemingly want to win Bush's homestate next time around. It's probably enough to push Johnson over the top. If Curry closes strong on Rowland, and Lieberman makes a big push for Maloney, it could swing back to his favor.
IL:19th-CD-- Phelps vs. Shimkus
A toss-up. It'd be nice to see some recent polling on this race, as it's the one I'm least sure of at this time. I am sticking with the slight lean to Phelps until something I see causes me to believe that he will lose the seat. Prior to Shimkus, Durbin held the seat; with Durbin and Blagojevich both looking like landslide winners in a year that's certain to remain as a landmark loss for the GOP in IL, it's tough to forecast that Shimkus defeats Phelps-- a strong campaigner. I also think that the layout of the district works towards Phelps advantage. The rural areas are the old CD of Phelps, the St. Louis suburbs are the old CD of Shimkus. For Phelps to make inroads will take less of a widespread effort (this is a huge district).
PA:17th-CD- Holden vs. Gekas
A slight lean toward Holden. I can't see Gekas winning this district against Holden. Not only does Holden match-up well ideologically with the new district, he's proving himself to be a much stronger campaigner, with Gekas looking somewhat like a mini-Holden, trying to say 'me to' on agriculture and SS support, with a long legislative record saying just the opposite. Given the fatigue-effect that the older Gekas encourages in comparison to the younger Holden, it's enough to make this a toss-up. Given the Ed-effect in the Governor's race, Holden has an edge. If Fisher pulls close to Rendell, then the lean toward Holden could well evaporate.
Replies: 7 comments
Hey, how about adding whether these people are Republicans or Democrats? They're not exactly household names. Thanks and love your site!
Posted by etc. @ 08/31/2002 03:15 PM PST
Democrats come first, Republicans second.
Posted by MyDD @ 08/31/2002 03:42 PM PST
MyDD: I agree with your analyses for all these races with the possible exception of IL-19. Shimkus has a 2-to-1 cash advantage over Phelps, and this district went 58% for Bush. Ryan-fatigue will hurt, no doubt, but I'd say slight edge to Shimkus without having a recent poll. Also, take with a grain of salt, but a GOP poll released last week showed Nancy Johnson with a 51-32 lead in CT-5.
Posted by ROC-Indy @ 08/31/2002 05:34 PM PST
MyDD: I don't think term limits are the reason why Jim Maloney isn't running in 2004. He's only been a House member since 1996. Nancy Johnson has been a House member since 1982 -- no term limits are stopping her. I think he's just retiring.
Posted by ROC-Indy @ 08/31/2002 06:04 PM PST
I'm pretty sure that Maloney has self-imposed term-limits on himself, maybe I should have mentioned it that way instead. 58% for Bush by a blue dog Dem in a state where Gore did no TV, while Bush did a lot doesn't mean much.2:1 cash for Shimkus does though, and if it stays that way, it could mean a difference.
Posted by MyDD @ 08/31/2002 09:10 PM PST
I live a few miles from the border of the Shows/Pickering district and agree with your acessment 100%. Pickering probably will win but I'm not willing to count Shows out until the last rural precinct comes in. Remember, Gene Taylor's district on the coast is even more conservative and it's represented by a Democrat.
Posted by MississippiDem @ 08/31/2002 09:45 PM PST
It will hinge on GOTV efforts in the district, and if the GOP is depressed, Shows might come out on top.
Posted by MyDD @ 08/31/2002 11:54 PM PST
