09/09/2002 Archived Entry: "DSCC Frontline News-- Senate races in TX, SD, ME"
The Frontline this week is releasing polls from three races:
Smear Campaign Fruitless in Texas
... A poll conducted by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin and Associates for the DSCC from September 3-5 found Ron Kirk continues to lead John Cornyn 38% - 33% with 29% undecided. As we head into the important post-Labor Day period this reiterates Kirk’s strength and illustrates that the Republican spending of more than $115,000 a day over the past 34 days has failed to tarnish Kirk.
DSCC Poll Shows Johnson Continues to Lead
... Despite the barrage of attack ads being run by the GOP and President Bush's recent visit, a Greenburg Quinlan poll taken last week found Johnson ahead by 4 points, 48% to 44%. Republicans are also worrying that the Native vote in South Dakota may not be adequately sampled in polls, a constituency some political strategists credit for Senator Johnson’s win in 1996. The South Dakota Democratic Party has been working closely with the Native population to register voters and Senator Johnson has set up campaign offices on every reservation in South Dakota.
Pingree Closes to Single Digits
The Pingree – Collins race has now closed to single digits. In a Lake Snell Perry poll released at the end of August, Senator Collins received 47 percent, Chellie Pingree received 38 percent, and 15 percent of voters were undecided... In May this was a 12-point race (45 percent to 33 percent) and in March, a 36-point race (56 percent to 20 percent).
In Texas, we will continue to see Republican turnout models yielding a Cornyn lead, and Democratic turnout models yielding a Kirk lead. One thing that's been notable in all of the recent polls, is the large number of undecided voters-- leading me to believe that a large number of indecisive Independents are pulling back and taking a look.
In South Dakota, Johnson continues to improve on his numbers. Bush has thwarted Thune, and it may be getting to late in the campaign for him to turn it around-- but I would bet that SD receives some sort drought aid from Bush. The Native American population has been growing in a number of plain states, as the white population declines.
There's hope in Maine. Although I haven't seen that good of numbers from Lake et. al. this year (perhaps it's their association with Terrance, and that bogus Battleground), moving from a 12% race to a 9% race in their polling is good news for Pingree.
The "three amigos" strategy (Thune, Talent, Coleman) in the Senate races are not panning out as planned by Bush/Rove and the Republicans. They are left hoping that Toricelli is not able to regain his footing, and hold slim hopes for a run-off in LA. I am with Rothenburg & Sabato on the NJ Senate race. Survey USA polls aside, the polling shows this race tied, and given the fallout already passed for Toricelli, that's good news. I still slightly lean this race to Toricelli. I've updated the US Senate webpage, and now forecast the Democrats to pick up two takeovers (Shaheen & Pryor); and win two open seats (Kirk & Sanders). An update on the Governor 2002 webpage is coming along.
Replies: 13 comments
Pingree improved by 3% in a Democratic poll! I'm fully prepared to write this race off. In fact, I've said all along that Collins will win again, and pretty easily too. Barring a Democratic tide of gargantuan proportions, I don't see how Pingree will win this.
Posted by Kobe @ 09/09/2002 08:41 PM PST
I got an email from the Terrance Group saying CNN was running a series of online polls and I should rush over to CNN and vote for Tim Hutchinson because he was in a tight race. I went to CNN and voted a straight Democratic ticket. Take a look, some of the numbers might surprise you. Obviously they are not valid scientific numbers but the campaigns can point to online public support for fundraising so go to CNN and vote.
Posted by NebraskaDem @ 09/09/2002 09:18 PM PST
They're ALL democratic polls. Hell, even Torricelli's own pollsters can't conjure up a lead for him - they released a 40 - 40 poll, and for them to do that, you know they're desperate.
All these polls represent the best possible numbers they can get when twisting the polls - the decision to include likely voters or all voters, leaners or only firmly decided... the GOP poll just showed Cornyn with a 5 point lead or so.
Posted by Mr. Moderate @ 09/09/2002 10:25 PM PST
I agree that two of the three initial best-hopes for the GOP are quickly slipping away. As I explained on another thread, I believe Johnson is taking control of SD. Meanwhile, everything I've seen out of Minnesota is that Norm Coleman is running a very poor campaign. I don't see any chance of a Wellstone loss unless there's a vote on Iraq before the election. However, I do think the GOP maintains a very good chance of a pick-up in Missouri. Let's face it - Jean Carnahan is not a particularly good candidate. The more exposure she gets, the further her numbers seem to fall. If I had to make predictions right now, I'd say Talent wins in MO, and Forrester wins in NJ. Pryor will win in AR. I think control of the Senate will come down to the TX and NH races.
Posted by ROC-Indy @ 09/10/2002 05:19 AM PST
All party polls are questionable. Lake, Snell and Perry is a fraud as is the Tarrance Poll that shows Hutchinson even. DSCC has Toriccelli tied, Tarrance has Hutchinson tied in Arkansas. Some people said that independent pollsters would be out in force after Labor Day. Hell, they really seem to have abdicated their responsibility of providing the public with unbiased poll numbers, the vacuum being filled with imposters, frauds and push pollsters, perhaps fixing numbers not very different from corporate America (Lay, Chainsaw Dunlup and other crooks).
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 09/10/2002 06:25 AM PST
"(I got an email from the Terrance Group saying CNN was running a series of online polls and I should rush over to CNN and vote for Tim Hutchinson because he was in a tight race."
Just like I have always suspected, Ed Goeas is a fraud who is now pushing unscientific numbers. What a joke! As I said earlier, Goeas and Lake are not very different from the corporate crooks. If they were CEOs they would likely be investigated as well.
Posted by G. C. Raj @ 09/10/2002 06:28 AM PST
THE ONLY POLL THAT COUNTS IS ON ELECTION DAY, THATS IF ITS NOT RIGGED.
TURNOUT TURNOUT TURNOUT TURNOUT
AND THANK YOU
Posted by CHRISTOPHER MICHAUD @ 09/10/2002 07:02 AM PST
Mr. Moderate, the poll that had Cornyn up by 5 (Texas Poll) was discredited. It sampled blacks as only 8%, when most polls have them at 10-12% because of anticipated higher turnout. The Cornyn-Kirk race here in Texas is still too close to call, even with all of the tv ads against kirk. That's why you and Karl Rove are so worried. Texas GOP pollsters like Mike Bacelice don'
t believe that the Democratic base won't show up. They also won't admit that suburban republican women are undecided in the Senate race and Lt. Gov race. I hope they keep believing that.
Posted by pc @ 09/10/2002 07:04 AM PST
I think the race there in Texas is somewhere between a tie and a slight Cornyn lead, or at least that's what independent polling leads me to believe. And to be honest with you, I'm not especially "worried" that Cornyn will lose, since I really don't have any kind of interest in a Cornyn win. My views are probably a closer to Kirk anyways.
(I also believe that Forrester *does* have his ten point lead, since Quinnipiac is using unrealisticly high Dem turnout numbers for an off year election, especially one with Torricelli running at the top of the ticket. And it's an aged poll, anyways. Hutchinson is probably even with or slightly behind Pryor, and Talent looks like he has a slim lead, though I still think he's going to lose in November. I haven't seen any poll to indicate Johnson is starting to put this one away, and I still think the race is deadlocked.)
And FYI, Zogby will be providing periodic numbers on the big 10 Senate races to his subscribers, which probably means CNBC will have them too. In the words of Doug Forrester, "help is on the way"!
Posted by Mr. Moderate @ 09/10/2002 09:03 AM PST
I am encouraged by these poll numbers. As I now see it, the Democrats would likely lose only New Jersey and maybe Missouri if the election were held today.
But on the Republican side it gets trickier. I think Shaheen in NH would beat Smith and be in a tossup with Sununu. Pryor would win in Arkansas. Texas is not predictable at this moment. I feel Smith in Oregon would lose. Collins, Inhofe, Allard, Alexander, Graham, would win bare majorities at this moment.
That wouild leave either a status quo Senate or a gain of two seats for the Democrats.
Update: A new poll in North Carolina has Dole leading Bowles by on 52-42.
Posted by Ced @ 09/10/2002 12:34 PM PST
Let me know if you have any more info on that poll, Ced.
Posted by RParker @ 09/10/2002 03:22 PM PST
Sanders is gonna beat Graham in SC I agree with mydd
Posted by GaDem @ 09/10/2002 04:31 PM PST
Just sent it to you RParker.
Posted by Ced @ 09/11/2002 05:37 AM PST
