09/15/2002 Archived Entry: "Sept 17th Primary Contest"
State your predictions here in the comment section. Winners will be announced in each race according to three measures:
1) picking the winner
2) the winners total percentage of vote
3) margin of victory
Rankings are determined by the number of victories, with the least number of losses as the tie-breaker.
Predictions will be accepted up until the afternoon of September 17th.
Hawaii Governor
Democratic Primary
Andy Anderson
Ed Case
Mazie K. Hirono
Mass. Governor
Democratic Primary
Shannon O'Brien
Thomas Birmingham
Robert Reich
Warren Tolman
Mass. Lt. Governor
Democratic Primary
Christopher Gabrieli
Lois Pines
John Slattery
Republican Primary
James Rappaport
Kerry Healey
Washington 2nd CD
Republican Primary
Herb Meyer
Norma Smith
Warren Hanson
Oklahoma Run-Offs
Democratic Governor
Vince Orza
Brad Henry
Democratic US Senator
David Walters
Tom Boettcher
Replies: 21 comments
Does anyone know what the recent poll showing O'Brien ahead (right after one showing that she was tied with Reich at 21%) used to reflect turnout? The way I see it, if it had no accurate reflection of turnout, Reich will win. Her support is broader, his is much deeper. If it did reflect turnout (as much as is possible) then Shannon's got it.
Posted by leftist @ 09/15/2002 10:12 AM PST
Mass Dem Gov Prim Shannon O'Brien
Mass Dem Lt Gov Prim Kerry Healey
Washington 2nd CD Rep Prim Herb Meyer
Oklahoma Dem Gov Run-Off Vince Orza
Oklahoma Dem Prim US Sen Run-Off
David Waters
Posted by Michael Le Flore @ 09/15/2002 01:51 PM PST
Mass Gov Dem Prim Shannon O'Brien
Mass Lt Gov Dem Prim Christopher Gabrieli
Mass Lt Gov Rep Prim Kerry Healey
Washington 2nd CD Herb Meyer
Oklahoma Dem Gov Prim Run-off
Vince Orza
Oklahoma Dem US Prim Run-off David Waters
Posted by Michael Le Flore @ 09/15/2002 01:58 PM PST
MA Governor:
O'Brien 37
Reich 28
Birmingham 24
Tolman 11
OK: Orza and Walters
Posted by CA Pol Junkie @ 09/15/2002 05:40 PM PST
Mass Gov
O'Brien 42%
Reich 34%
Tolman 16%
Birmingham 7%
Mass Lt. Gov
Pines 40%
Gabrieli 35%
Slattery 25%
Rappaport 53%
Murphy Healey 47%
WA 2nd
Meyer 45%
Smith 38%
Hansen 17%
(whatever happened to Kelly Barlean?)
OK runoffs
Boettcher 51%
Walters 49%
Orza 54%
Henry 46%
HI Gov
Hirono 45%
Case 41%
Anderson 14%
Posted by JoeyJoeJoe @ 09/15/2002 07:43 PM PST
Matt Drudge is reporting its all systems go for Al Gore to run again in 2004!
Posted by GaDem @ 09/15/2002 09:12 PM PST
Mass. Governor
Democratic Primary
Shannon O'Brien- 38%
Thomas Birmingham- 36%
Robert Reich- 22%
Warren Tolman- 4%
Mass. Lt. Governor
Democratic Primary
Christopher Gabrieli-40%
Lois Pines-38%
John Slattery-22%
Republican Primary
James Rappaport- 45%
Kerry Healey- 55%
Washington 2nd CD
Republican Primary
Herb Meyer- 46%
Norma Smith- 37%
Warren Hanson- 17%
Oklahoma Run-Offs
Democratic Governor
Vince Orza- 60%
Brad Henry- 40%
Democratic US Senator
David Walters- 52%
Tom Boettcher- 48%
HI Dem Primary for Govt.
Hirono 47%
Case 40%
Anderson 13%
Walters could be in for a close one, an upset might be possible but I think for now he'll pull ahead. Orza shouldn't have any problems. O'Brien could also face a close race as well.
Posted by RUDY @ 09/15/2002 09:16 PM PST
Massachusetts Governor
O'Brien 35
Reich 30
Birmingham 28
Oklahoma Governor (Dem runoff)
Orza 60
Henry 40
OK Senate (Dems)
Walters 60
Boettcher 40
Posted by Jim Dallas @ 09/15/2002 09:43 PM PST
Mass Gov
O'Brien 39
Tolman 28
Reich 21
Birmingham 12
LG/D: Gabrielli
LG/R: Rappaport
Posted by RogueDem @ 09/16/2002 05:45 AM PST
Mass Governor's Race-Democrats
1st-O'Brien
2nd-Too Close to call
3rd-Too Close to call
4th-Tolman
(Basically, I think it will be a 3-way close race, not quite a 3-way tie, but less than 5 points between the three.)
Mass. Lt Governor
Democrats
Pines
(The reason is that only O'Brien supporters are going to be backing Gabrieli-Slattery is under the radar, and Pines will pick up liberal support from Tolman, Birmingham and Reich)
Republicans
Rappaport (by 2-5 points)
WA-2
Don't have the knowledge to predict on this race.
OK-run-offs
Governor
Henry (in an upset)
Senate
Walters (with 55-60%)
Hawaii Governor's Race-Early Prediction
Hirono by 15+ points, Lingle with more than 80%
(Go Mazie!)
Posted by Mr. Liberal @ 09/16/2002 06:13 AM PST
I take back my prediction on Massachusetts-I'm predicting a Birmingham victory.
Posted by Mr. Liberal @ 09/16/2002 06:41 AM PST
My predictions
Massachusetts Governor
O'Brien 38%
Reich 32%
Birmingham 18%
Tolman 12%
Washington Unfamiliar
Oklahoma Run-Offs
Senate
Walters 55%
Boettcher 45%
Governor
Ozra 56%
Henry 44%
Lieutenant Governor
Gabrieli 41%
Pines 34%
Flattery 25%
Rappaport 54%
Healey 46%
Posted by Ced @ 09/16/2002 06:51 AM PST
Curious...I think a lot of people are underestimating Tolman in the Mass race. Over the last weeks of the campaign, it is Tolman who has had the momentum, thanks to a well-timed (and appealingly quirky) media buy. He also seems to be tapping into the anti- Beacon Hill sentiment that is forever percolating just below the surface. The anti-Beacon Hill candidate always performs better than his poll numbers (Weld and Silber in 1990, Dukakis, believe it or not, in his early campaigns).
O'Brien: Will win due to a combinatin of a competent (if uninspiring) campaign, her gender and her Irish heritage.
Birmingham: Will be the surprisingly big flop. His appeal is extremely narrow (insiders and union activists), and he will be crushed among independent voters.
Reich: So much potential, so little of it realized. Wated months preaching to the choir in uberliberal towns like Cambridge, Northampton and Brookline, but never articulated a reason for the soccer moms, office park dads and old fashioned Reagan Dems (or Ed King Dems, if you will) to vote for him. A maverick candidate has to break out of his ideological shell; Reich never managed to do so.
Posted by RogueDem @ 09/16/2002 08:30 AM PST
Wait...so primaries in Mass. have independents voting in party races too? In that case, for the 3rd time, I'm switching my support-this time, back to O'Brien.
Posted by Mr. Liberal @ 09/16/2002 10:59 AM PST
In Massachussettes, Reich with over 40%
Posted by Real Michaud @ 09/16/2002 12:13 PM PST
RealMichaud:
No poll in the last several months has shown Reich with anything more than the mid-twenties.
Reich refused to sink his own personal money into his campaign, and was far less visible on television and radio over the last week. He will probably bleed a lot of support to Tolman, who is best positioned to scoop up the outsider, reform-liberal vote.
Over the weekend, Tolman began a radio buy that is a clear attempt to position him as the reformer in the race, bashing House Speaker Finneran but leaving the other candidates alone. Interesting move, and one that might push him into a horserace with O'Brien if the stars align properly.
Posted by RogueDem @ 09/16/2002 12:19 PM PST
Hawaii Governor
Democratic Primary
Andy Anderson 14
Ed Case 31
Mazie K. Hirono 55
Mass. Governor
Democratic Primary
Shannon O'Brien 39
Thomas Birmingham 17
Robert Reich 18
Warren Tolman 26
Mass. Lt. Governor
Democratic Primary
Christopher Gabrieli 38
Lois Pines 39
John Slattery 23
Republican Primary
James Rappaport 47
Kerry Healey 53
Washington 2nd CD
Republican Primary
Herb Meyer 46
Norma Smith 36
Warren Hanson 17
Oklahoma Run-Offs
Democratic Governor
Vince Orza 58
Brad Henry 42
Democratic US Senator
David Walters 54
Tom Boettcher 46
Posted by ROC-Indy @ 09/16/2002 05:01 PM PST
Massachusetts
O'Brien 41
Reich 25
Tolman 24
Birmingham 10
Gabrieli 45
Pines 43
Slattery 12
Rappaport 52
Healey 48
Oklahoma
Orza 53
Henry 47
Walters 59
Slattery 41
Washington
Smith 52
Meyer 42
Hanson 6
Hawai'i
Hirono 50
Case 32
Anderson 18
Posted by Mississippidem @ 09/16/2002 06:20 PM PST
Massachusetts
O'Brien 38
Tolman 27
Reich 20
Birmingham 15
Pines 42
Gabrieli 40
Slattery 18
Rappaport 53
Healey 47
Oklahoma
Orza 57
Henry 43
Walters 55
Boettcher 45
Hawai'i
Hirono 49
Case 35
Anderson 16
Posted by RParker @ 09/16/2002 06:52 PM PST
Hawaii Governor
Democratic Primary
Andy Anderson 27
Ed Case 10
Mazie K. Hirono 62
Mass. Governor
Democratic Primary
Shannon O'Brien 30
Thomas Birmingham 25
Robert Reich 23
Warren Tolman 22
Mass. Lt. Governor
Democratic Primary
Christopher Gabrieli 60
Lois Pines 15
John Slattery 25
Republican Primary
James Rappaport 47
Kerry Healey 53
Washington 2nd CD
Republican Primary
Herb Meyer 35
Norma Smith 55
Warren Hanson 10
Oklahoma Run-Offs
Democratic Governor
Vince Orza 57
Brad Henry 43
Democratic US Senator
David Walters 60
Tom Boettcher 40
Posted by MyDD @ 09/17/2002 03:36 PM PST
Hawaii Dem Gov Prim-Hirono
Posted by Michael Le Flore @ 09/18/2002 06:41 AM PST
