09/17/2002 Archived Entry: "Cook Assuring the Republicans"

From Off To The Races:

...with only 44 of 435 districts in play... With just 50 days to go before the Nov.
5 election, only a dozen House races can be said to be true toss-ups at
this stage, with 32 more leaning to one party or the other. More
ominously for Democrats, 219 House seats currently can be said to be
leaning, likely or solidly Republican, one more than a simple majority
of the House... Democrats could win every seat that was leaning, likely or
solidly Democratic, plus every toss-up race, and still come up two seats
short of a majority.

Come on Charlie. The Dow is down to 8200, and not a single incumbent is forecasted to lose! Charlie is running on GOP fumes. FWIW, here are his columns with the 44 seats he sees as in play:

Republican incumbents (10)
Constance Morella of Maryland- toss-up
Anne Northup of Kentucky- toss-up
Rob Simmons (Conn.-02)- lean Republican
Clay Shaw (Fla.-22)- lean Republican
Jim Nussle (Iowa-01)- lean Republican
Jim Leach (Iowa-02)- lean Republican
Robin Hayes (N.C.-08)- lean Republican
Charles Bass (N.H.-02)- lean Republican
Heather Wilson (N.M.-01)- lean Republican
Shelley Moore Capito (W.Va.-02)- lean Republican

Republican open seats (10)
Tennessee's 4th District (Van Hilleary)- lean Democrat
Maryland's 2nd (Robert Erhlich)- toss-up
New Hampshire's 1st (John Sununu)- toss-up
New Mexico's 2nd (Rep. Joseph Skeen)- toss-up
South Dakota's at-large (John Thune)- toss-up
Alabama's 3rd (Rep. Bob Riley)- lean Republican
Louisiana's 5th (John Cooksey)- lean Republican
N.Jersey's 5th (Marge Roukema)- lean Republican
Texas 5th (Pete Sessions)- lean Republican
Oklahoma's 4th (J.C. Watts)- lean Republican

Democrat incumbents (8)
William Luther in Minnesota's 2nd District- toss-up
Karen Thurman (Fla.-05)- lean Democratic
Julia Carson (Ind.-07)- lean Democratic
Leonard Boswell (Iowa-03)- lean Democratic
Dennis Moore (Kan.-03)- lean Democratic
Ken Lucas (Ky.-04)- lean Democratic
Earl Pomeroy (N.D.-at-large)- lean Democratic
Jim Matheson (Utah-02)- lean Democratic

Democrat open seats (3)
California 18th District (Rep. Gary Condit)- lean Democratic
Indiana's 2nd (Rep. Tim Roemer)- toss-up
Maine's 2nd (Rep. John Baldacci)- toss-up
Michigan's 10th District (Rep. David Bonior)- likely Republican
Ohio's 3rd District (Rep. Tony Hall)- likely Republican
Pennsylvania's 18th District (Frank Mascara)- solid Republican

Reapportionment/Redistricting open seats (9)
Georgia 3rd- lean Democratic
Georgia 11th- lean Democratic
Georgia 12th- lean Democratic
Arizona's 1st- toss-up
Colorado's 7th- toss-up
Florida's 24th- lean Republican
Michigan's 11th- lean Republican
Penn's 6th- lean Republican
Nevada's 3th- lean Republican

incumbent vs. incumbent (4)
Pennsylvania's 17th, Gekas vs Holden- toss-up
Connecticut's 5th District, Johnson vs Maloney- lean Republican
Illinois' 19th District, Shimkus vs. Phelps- lean Republican
Mississippi's 3rd District, Pickering vs Shows- lean Republican

How Cook can include Pomeroy and Larson as vulnerable Democrats, while excluding the TX:23rd-CD Cuellar vs Bonilla; NM:1st-CD Romero vs. Wilson; IA:4th-CD Norris vs. Latham; CT:2nd-CD Courtney vs. Simmons; contests is remarkable! Pomeroy and Larson as vulnerable Democrats the equivalent of Rohrabacher and Toomey as vulnerable Republicans. For retired Republican seats that are open, the TN 4th isn't even on the top 50 seats I'm following. Davis has this in the bag. Look at the primary results and the make-up of that district! Let's correct Cook.

Cook has the Republicans ahead of the Democrats by a 219-216 margin, assuming that Democrats win his 12 toss-up seats. I am surprised by his listing of Northup as a toss-up. Conway looks good, but not like a winner yet. Same with Herseth against Jankalow, where I still give the Republican a slight edge. So I have those as 10-2 Democrat, yielding a 221-214 Republican edge.

OK, what's needed next for the Democrats to takeaway from his Republican seats? Here's the ones I have as Democratic wins from the 219 seats that Cook has under his Republican column:

I currently favor Democrats in these districts whereas Cook favors Republicans: IA 2nd CD; N.C. 8th CD; AL 3rd CD; MI 11th CD; IL 19th CD; NJ 3rd. Flipping these seats yields a 220-215 Democratic majority.

I'm most soft here on forecasting Sumers to win over Garrett. And if I see one more poll showing Herseth over Jankalow, I'm flipping this to a Democratic gain (an aside in SD: Rounds looks like a shoo-in; and I can see the voters -at least those 5-10% of independents that crossover- choosing Herseth & Thune over Jankalow & Johnson. Call it what it is: a personality/good-TV-look contest for these voters).

I also favor a Democrat (my upset pick) in the TX 23rd CD, Cuellar over Bonilla, yielding a net gain of 9 seats for the Democrats-- a 221-214 seat majority.

Replies: 24 comments

Charlie Cook has always been on pot. Larry Sabato is probably more on the mark.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/house.htm

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 09/17/2002 03:39 PM PST

And in redistricting, he has missed NC-13 which is lean Democrat.

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 09/17/2002 03:41 PM PST

Boy, this guy Charlie Cook does not even have his information right. He has missed GA-4 (Macon, etc) which was reapportioned and considered lean Democratic. So, he has missed two districts that were reapportioned.

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 09/17/2002 04:04 PM PST

Charlie Cook has to much fat clogging his brain :)

Posted by Real Michadu @ 09/17/2002 04:51 PM PST

I used to live in central GA. I would be very surprised if it was a Republican pickup. Lean democrat is the correct designation. Jim Marshall was a very popular Mayor of Macon.

Posted by Ga6thDem @ 09/17/2002 05:24 PM PST

It's time to be a little more careful here. The story from the press has been Dem Dem Dem, just as in 2000 it was Bush Bush Bush. And look what happened.

The Dems can't sit on the tiny lead they have. They have to take chances.

Posted by Eric M @ 09/17/2002 05:51 PM PST

MyDD: What are your reasons for predicting an upset in TX-23? On the surface, this looks like a no-contest. Bonilla led by 30 points in a June poll (granted, that was 3 months ago), the district went 59-41 for Bush, and Bonilla has $1.6 million to Cuellar's $0.5 million. Am I missing something here?

Posted by ROC-Indy @ 09/17/2002 06:15 PM PST

G. C. Raj: Sabato's numbers aren't all that different than Charlie Cook's. Sabato has 216 seats leaning, likely or solid GOP, compared to 204 likewise for the Dems. He lists 15 races as toss-ups. Thus, Sabato is saying the GOP keeps the House unless the Dems win 13 of those 15 toss-ups.

Posted by ROC-Indy @ 09/17/2002 06:23 PM PST

Oops... I miscounted. Make that 14 of 15; basically running the table.

Posted by ROC-Indy @ 09/17/2002 06:38 PM PST

Look on the bright side if we dont reach 217(plus Bernie Saunders).

It will be a riot watching the clowns in the GOP leadership trying to get anything done with a 218-220 majority.

All Dick Armey can do is whine about Daschle,Deb Price sounds like a tolken woman "yes sir" to Armey,their black showpiece is leaving,etc. Man I wish Tom Delay would be speaker lollllllllll,but majority leader will be funny enough.

Lets face it,the 1994 "revolution" was a congress with the smallest majority since Eisenhowers days,and GOP has went down down down ever since.Their huge luck in 2000(winning almost every close race)and redistricting this year might just pad them from total wipeout.

I am not trying to say we shouldnt hope for a win(there will be benefits in having the House for sure),but there are plenty of future advantages in being the out party,especially when the majority is a bunch of jokers soon to be religated to the ash heap of history.

Posted by MLM @ 09/17/2002 08:30 PM PST

TX-23 should go Democratic. This district stretches from the Anglo portion of San Antonio all along the border to East El Paso. With the exception of the SA part, I believe that every county is majority-Hispanic, and redistricting added more Hispanic voters than were previously here. Bonilla has historically won because the Anglos in San Antonio (Bonilla's home) showed up, and the Hispanics in Laredo (Cuellar's home), who were outnumbered in any case, didn't.
Since Sanchez is from Laredo, the turnout along the border will be unbelievable and mostly straight-ticket Democratic, despite Cuellar's and Sanchez's previous disagreements. And, finally, eligible voters outside of San Antonio outnumber San Antonians for the first time since this district was created. Finally, Bonilla hasn't had a real opponent in the past 3 cycles, and is viewed, frankly, as a "coconut" (brown on the outside and white on the inside.) Why the straight-ticket voting? As I recall, in Mexico, all voting is straight-ticket, and it's a tradition not easily changed.

Sanchez has been enrolling voters like crazy, and the South Texas machine (so effective in the Rio Grande Valley) will be in place---don't be surprised to see much of the district outside of SA rolling up 80% D numbers. Also, polling doesn't count anybody who hasn't voted in the last two cycles, so all the newly-registered Hispanic voters are left uncounted---want to bet how they vote?

Don't let Bush's numbers fool you---he was the most popular Republican in Texas history, and he had short but workable coattails. Bonilla's numbers precisely matched Bush's in 2000. Even with Bush at the top of the ticket, his numbers were down 4% from 1998. None of the Republicans this year will be dragging other candidates along with them, and the only statewide Hispanic Republican (an incumbent Supreme Court judge appointed by Bush) was defeated in their primary. Hispanics despise Cornyn, who heads the R ticket.

I'm not sure that a financial advantage translates into a real leg up, since the Hispanic vote tends to be person-to-person, and the R GOTV effort is not working in Hispanic areas AT ALL. Television in San Antonio and El Paso is largely wasted, since it reaches mostly people outside the district (only small portions of those cities are in the district), and the long border spread makes it hard to reach voters everywhere else. That leaves Laredo, which is historically Democratic, and, again, Cuellar's hometown. Del Rio and Eagle Pass, the only other population centers, don't have the votes to matter, and they tend to be more border (Laredo) in their outlook than San Antonio. I don't know where Bonilla plans to spend his campaign funds, but it's hard to find a spot where they'll make a difference.

The R's statewide have already given up registering new R voters, and are now using that money for anti-Kirk ads. If they thought they could gain Hispanic voters, you can bet they'd be spending the money in 23.

Posted by siriridge @ 09/17/2002 09:41 PM PST

Thanks siriridge, that's much better than I could have explained. Bonilla, with brother Jeb, are going to be looking for a 2-year stint with the White House Bush administration come January.

Posted by MyDD @ 09/17/2002 10:40 PM PST

G.C. Raj,
I know, that he missed the NC-13, especially with Grant winning the GOP nomination, just shows that Cook is not doing his homework. I was going to comment on it, but hy beat a dead horse.

Thanks for the Sabato link.

Here's the current poll of Wilson over Romero-- http://www.abqjournal.com/elex/769391news09-15-02.htm

THis has got potential written all over it:

""The bad news for Richard Romero is that he's 16 points behind Heather Wilson," Sanderoff said. "The good news is Heather is only 3 points above 50 percent and the lion's share of the undecideds are Democrats and independents."
Wilson leads Romero among both men and women, but her support strengthens among men, Sanderoff said.
Wilson also leads Romero among Anglo voters and those with incomes of more than $40,000, the poll indicated.
Among Hispanics, Romero was ahead of Wilson by 13 percentage points, but 38 percent of Hispanics surveyed backed Wilson. "That's interesting since she isn't Hispanic and he is," Sanderoff said. "That's a group that could come home to Romero."
Wilson was supported by 28 percent of Democrats surveyed, while Romero was backed by 10 percent of Republicans polled."

Posted by MyDD @ 09/17/2002 10:45 PM PST

If Bonilla was only winning his races by 10 or 12 points I'd be much more receptive to an upset possibility. But he's never drawn less than 59%, and won by 21 points in 2000. While TX-23 did add more Hispanics, it actually became slightly more GOP overall, since some Anglo Dem areas were replaced with Anglo GOP areas. I agree that Cuellar should boost Hispanic turnout significantly. The question is whether it will be enough to make up the 20-point victory margins Bonilla routinely amasses. That's a tall order, even taking into account Cuellar is a much stronger candidate than Bonilla is used to facing. Considering Bonilla has a 3-to-1 funding advantage, I'd say he's still the favorite until I see some independent polling that suggests otherwise. Of course, if you guys are correct on your upset call, I'll be the first to lavish praise upon you! :)

Posted by ROC-Indy @ 09/18/2002 05:46 AM PST

I think Priscilla Owen helps Cuellar (as well as Sanchez and Kirk) too. If voters are made aware that the judgeship was only open because Orrin Hatch wouldn't so much as give a hearing to not one, but two Hispanic nominees, I think they'll come out ever more, dooming Bonilla.

Posted by AVADem @ 09/18/2002 05:50 AM PST

If you'd witnessed first-hand the Sanchez/Kirk GOTV effort during the primary and runoff, you'd have more faith in turnovers in Texas this fall. In my precincts, there were people showing up who hadn't voted in years (including in the 2000 Presidential election).
Sanchez's campaign spent the entire summer with paid people going door-to-door identifying Democratic voters to be driven to the polls during early voting and on election day.
I think it's going to work. Will all the Democrats running get elected? No. Will the statewide candidates? Yes.

Posted by siriridge @ 09/18/2002 07:34 AM PST

About Ron Kirk: I think he just lost the election by making those remarks in San Antonio... this one will not sit well with the voters...

Posted by Frederik @ 09/18/2002 07:41 AM PST

The Kirk/Cornyn race is one that would be determined by the stock market, although Kirk's foolish statements regarding minorities going to war is not going to help him.

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 09/18/2002 08:40 AM PST

"THis has got potential written all over it"

The potential seems written in invisible ink.

Speaking of chances that looked better a couple months ago, PoliticsNJ.com has an article on NJ-5: http://www.politicsnj.com/murphy091802_CD5.htm
Sumers really has run a miserable campaign so far. (I assume that this is the race you meant, and not NJ-3, which is solidly behind Jim Saxton.)

Posted by Mr. Moderate @ 09/18/2002 11:50 AM PST

Frederik, I don't think Kirk has lost the election because of the statement. That statement was ill-advised, but probably not fatal. I live in Dallas, so I'm a little more pro-Kirk, but I have seen many Kirk bumper stickers in North Dallas. People know he was a conservative mayor in Dallas, that he isn't some liberal. He's very charismatic. It will be close, but I think Kirk pulls it out. GOP was stupid not to run someone statewide from Dallas-Ft. Worth area. They count on big margins in the metroplex to put them over the top. They are still scared. They spent sums of money attaching Kirk to Hillary Clinton in the Dallas media market. Most Democrats lose Dallas Ft.Worth by 20 pts. Kirk is only down by 5.

Posted by pc @ 09/18/2002 12:27 PM PST

I hope you're right but the GOP will keep rubbing his nose in that (unwise) statement. It might alienate just enough white voters to hand Crony the victory.

Posted by Frederik @ 09/18/2002 12:50 PM PST

If Kirk has lost momentum, it should show up in the next indy poll. As far as Sumers-Garret is concerned, I have been hearing different stories. Most of them have been rants and raves by one reporter or the other. I need to see an indy poll before any judgement can be made. And by the way if Sununu is below 50% in a GOP poll, I am waiting to see what the American Research Group finds this week.

Posted by G.C. Raj @ 09/18/2002 02:52 PM PST

"As far as Sumers-Garret is concerned, I have been hearing different stories. Most of them have been rants and raves by one reporter or the other."

Well, I live adjacent to the district and work in it, so I've got a decent idea of how this race is going, for the most part, through the local media. Basically, Sumers is leveling charges against Garrett that hurt him most among people who were most likely never going to vote for him in the first place: ardent democrats. All of Garrett's charges hit Sumers across the board, and they're a bit more significant than a press release showing an environmental group being against Garrett. Despite being New Jersey, this is going to be a tough district for a Democrat to win in.

The reasons why Garrett are going to win are as follows:
(1) Garrett (NJ-5) is easily as conservative as former Rep. Mike Pappas (NJ-12) was.
(2) NJ-5 is more Republican than the old NJ-12 by a good ten points. At least.
(3) Rush Holt and Anne Sumers are about the same caliber opponent as far as experience goes, but Holt ran a smart, efficent campaign, and Sumers is spending most her time on damage control.
(4) Republican candidates never fare worse than the GOP Presidential candidate which ran in the previous election. Bush won the new 5th, he lost the old 12th by a significant margin. (Pappas outpolled Dole twice in the 12th, and Zimmer outpolled Bush, though it wasn't enough for a victory.)
(5) Torricelli is simply going to get blown apart in the fifth, and that isn't going to help Sumers at all.
(6) And if that isn't enough, Bret Schundler won the 5th district. Hard to get more unflinchingly conservative than him. It hasn't rejected a Republican since the election of 1978. Even if Sumers wins, she's virtually doomed to be a one termer (or, at best, doomed to be swept out in the first moderately GOP year).

Posted by Mr. Moderate @ 09/18/2002 09:32 PM PST

"And by the way if Sununu is below 50% in a GOP poll, I am waiting to see what the American Research Group finds this week."

Being below 50% is really only a sign of trouble for an incumbent, since we generally assume that most undecideds will vote for the challenger if they haven't been convinced about the incumbent deserving re-election.

If anything, Shaheen has more to worry about being under 50 than Sununu does, figuring she's the one who's the closest to being the incumbent. (She's the only candidate in the race that has run statewide before, of course.)

Posted by Mr. Moderate @ 09/18/2002 09:42 PM PST