09/19/2002 Archived Entry: "Exploit it and you thrive? IL Tidal Wave"
Democratic consultant Peter Fenn, who advised former Vice President Al Gore in his 2000 campaign as the Democratic presidential nominee, said Democrats should avoid looking at the war as a campaign issue. "This is the new third rail of politics," he said. "Touch it and you die."
About this time, with the Dow falling another 2.8% today, under 8,000 and trending lower, one starts to look around and see possible races developing, particulary where the top-tier statewide campaigns are going to be blowouts, and coattails against the incumbant Republicans become a distinct possibility. Here's one that is on just such a radar:
Hank Perritt, the Democratic challenger to freshman Republican Rep. Mark Stephen Kirk in Illinois' 10th District, delivered a rebuke to members of his own party in an opinion piece published by the Washington Post on Sept. 16.
"Too many Democrats, while questioning the timing and the motivation for launching an attack, shrink from challenging the underlying premises of the administration's bellicose structure," he wrote.
Perritt went on to say, "Unfortunately, Democratic Party pollsters and political strategists caution us candidates that we should not talk about foreign policy but instead focus on domestic issues. The national leaders of my party seemed tongue-tied when it comes to matters of war and peace."
Perritt may be the right kind of candidates in just such a situation that he can toss the usual caution to the wind, and perhaps translate the underlying skepticism and dissatisfaction into an upset. Blagojevich is going to crush Ryan, ask Rothenburg:
The growing inevitability of a Democratic tidal wave is likely to depress Republican statewide turnout, further enhancing Democratic prospects to win offices throughout Illinois. A recent poll in the state's redrawn 19th district, where Rep. John Shimkus (R) faces Rep. David Phelps (D), puts the Democrat ahead by a couple of points... Part of the reason for that change could be the GOP's statewide problems, which could depress Republican turnout and paint all GOP candidates negatively.
Replies: 10 comments
I wonder if Republican presidential candidates will have a chance at Illinois anytime soon?
Posted by leftist @ 09/19/2002 05:18 PM PST
The Blacks, Eric and Merle, famous politcial analysts write about how the GOP won the south. It is time to write about how they lost the far west and how they are in the process of loosing Illinois and perhaps Michigan and New Jersey too!
Posted by G. C. Raj @ 09/19/2002 05:23 PM PST
In the end, it is the governors who may have coattails, not President Bush. If Mr. Bush did, we would be seeing it in many of the governor's races where GOP currently hold the statehouses. At the state and local levels, I think that an anti-incumbent tsunami may be developing and is likely to intensify as the stock market and confidence continues to sag. Whether the anti-incumbent gubernatorial tsunami would have enough of a coattail to put the Dems in control of the US House and expand their numbers in the US Senate is more than a million dollar question. For this, we have to watch what happens in Illinois and Oregon and perhaps even New Mexico, very closely.
Posted by G.C. Raj @ 09/19/2002 05:36 PM PST
See, this is the reason that so many Democrats bolted last time and moved to the Green Party.
If the Democrats can't even oppose this phony agression, why should we vote for them?
Here truely is an issues where lives hang in the ballance - estimates of 10,000-30,000 potential civilian casualties. This is a bigger issue than parental advisory warnings, or prayer in school in terms of the results.
It's situations like these that make me consider going Green.
- MC
Posted by MC @ 09/19/2002 05:44 PM PST
See, this is the reason that so many Democrats bolted last time and moved to the Green Party.
If the Democrats can't even oppose this phony agression, why should we vote for them?
Here truely is an issues where lives hang in the ballance - estimates of 10,000-30,000 potential civilian casualties. This is a bigger issue than parental advisory warnings, or prayer in school in terms of the results.
It's situations like these that make me consider going Green.
- MC
Posted by MC @ 09/19/2002 05:44 PM PST
Yeah, it looks like an election with radically uneven turnout driven by Governor and Senate races at this point. Lowest turnout, California I'd figure. Record turnout (at least for midterm elections) is expected in Texas and Florida. We'll see a lot more screwy punditry before November 5, that's a certainty.
Posted by C.D. @ 09/19/2002 10:44 PM PST
Yeah, it looks like an election with radically uneven turnout driven by Governor and Senate races at this point. Lowest turnout, California I'd figure. Record turnout (at least for midterm elections) is expected in Texas and Florida. We'll see a lot more screwy punditry before November 5, that's a certainty.
Posted by C.D. @ 09/19/2002 10:44 PM PST
It feels as if there isn't any support from the Democrat Leadership for the rank and file to vote for them. I am beginning to not hold out any hope for a strong Democrat win in 2002 or 2004. The leadership doesn't seem to be as interested in a change as the rank and file, in fact there doesn't seem to be a Democrat Party Leadership. Their lackluster attempts at offering any opposition to some serious problems in this country is very discouraging, and if it doesn't change in the next few weeks the opportunity of a Dem sweep will be lost. In fact, there doesn't seem to be any party anywhere who seems capable of mounting a challange, and this was becoming apparent before 9/11, now it feels like the lack of leadership is screaming in our face.
Posted by SAMM @ 09/20/2002 06:26 AM PST
I wholeheartedly agree with you SAMM, I think Gephardt and friends believe in polls to much......I really never liked him and he wont get the nomination.
I think Dems leadership is afraid or more likely being bought off by the same people Bush is.
Posted by Real Michaud @ 09/20/2002 08:02 AM PST
I don't so much think that the way Progressives will be effective is so much by fighting every little partisan battle.
I think Progressives will win by building organizations and media that support them. The Republican successes of the last 10 years have been largely due to them building foundations, starting magazines, etc.
Progressives have the opportunity to do this much more successfully with new media. (Because the people are pretty much on our side.)
- Comments?
- MC
Posted by MC @ 09/21/2002 03:30 PM PST
