09/22/2002 Topic: "Results From Germany"

The Red/Green coalition looks like it will be able to form a very narrow majority, with the largest changes being the ouster of the PDS, and the increase of the Greens. BBC has an article taken from reactions of the five leaders, following preliminary results-- which were mixed. The Guardian is saying that the results are a needed boost for Europe's dwindling centre-left. Polls and early results gave the Free Democrat party (FDP) between 7.2% and 7.5% of the vote and 47 to 48 seats, disapointing the neo-liberal free marketers, who were hurt by a party chairman's late anti-Israel statement. The Greens are heading for a vote of between 9% and 9.5%, up from 6.7% in 1998 - under the foreign minister, Joschka Fischer. Such a result would give them 50 to 60 seats in the Bundestag. At this point, BBC states that the latest results from ARD television give the SPD/Greens a four-seat majority in the parliament, or Bundestag, with a total of 305 seats.

Seats forecasted-Source: ARD TV
SPD: 250
CDU-CSU: 247
Greens: 55
FDP: 47

The Guardian looks at the key developments of election results: How the also-rans played the biggest role. Given that Schröder's thin majority is due to the performance of the Greens, and having swallowed their pacifist principles over Kosovo and then Afghanistan, the Greens will be in no mood to compromise on Iraq The Guardian comments that two factors turned the campaign for the centre-left:

One was the chancellor's pledge to have no part in a US-led attack on Iraq - winkling out many left-leaning voters who might otherwise have abstained. Mr Fischer backed the chancellor's policy wholeheartedly, describing Washington's attempted "regime change" in Iraq as an "incalculable risk". The second factor was last month's flooding... concentrating voters' minds on the issue of the environment in general, and global warming in particular.

Sure, Schröder faces a US-style national divide down the middle, but at least Bush didn't get what he would have called a mandate for global war, had Stoiber won. In fact, with Fischer gaining strength, the outcome means that European resistance to Bush has grown in stature. US Democrats can thank the European Greens for this anti-war development.

Replies: 10 comments

Mein Gott. Schroeder muss Bush gedanken, fuer seine Gewinne.

Posted by AVADem @ 09/22/2002 10:05 PM PST

Thanks W!

Posted by GaDem @ 09/23/2002 08:23 AM PST

Official results released early today showed the Social Democrats and Greens won a combined 47.1% of the vote for the lower house, or Bundestag. Opposition parties led by resurgent conservatives under Edmund Stoiber totalled 45.9%.

That gave the Social Democrats and Greens 306 seats in the new 603-seat parliament, compared to 295 for conservatives and the pro-business Free Democrats. Reformed communists won the other two seats.

Posted by MyDD @ 09/23/2002 08:47 AM PST

Posted by MyDD @ 09/23/2002 08:49 AM PST

Posted by MyDD @ 09/23/2002 08:49 AM PST

Although I am not an expert on German elections, I was glad to see Schroeder pulled through. I think it sends a strong messageto Dubya that he can't count on allied support for his war on Iraq. I am very opposed to this war because I know it is politically motivated to boost Bush and Republicans and that sickens me.

Posted by Ced @ 09/23/2002 12:51 PM PST

Another good result of the elections: after doing worse than expected, the second-in-command of the FDP, Juergen Moelleman, resigned. Moelleman, you'll remember, is the guy who claimed that Jews "conjure" anti-Semitism out of non-Jews with their behavior, and worse did so to get a bump in the polls.

The fact that German voters rejected this sort of racism while simultaneously expressing their disagreement with the more militaristic aspects of U.S. policy is a slap in the face to those like Bill Safire who equate opposition to a war on Iraq with racism and anti-Semitism. If anything, it proves that Germans have not forgotten the lessons of World War II--that racism is poisonous and should not be tolerated in any form, and that war is bloody and dangerous, and should not be entered into lightly.

Posted by Jake @ 09/23/2002 01:09 PM PST

The Greens certainly came out of this election as the winners. Rice and Rumsfield say the atmosphere has been "poisoned" but really, they just got a taste of their own unilateralism.

Greens save Schroeder's skin is a good article:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/not_in_website/syndication/monitoring/media_reports/2276018.stm

Posted by MyDD @ 09/23/2002 01:14 PM PST

Schroder should be Gores Secretary of State

Posted by GaDems @ 09/23/2002 01:26 PM PST

Actually where Bush advocates a regime change in Iraq it's the same person - Bush - who is responsible for NOT having a regime change in Germany. Ironic not? Without Bush's foreign policy, the economic issue would have toasted Schröder. Bush's idiocy actually saved his butt.

Posted by Frederik @ 09/24/2002 09:03 AM PST