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Rothenberg picks up this week on the anti-incumbent mood that was covered in the 2002 Governor Analysis. His short synopsis of the races is pretty accurate (though I guess he hasn't noticed Wyoming yet, nor OK & WI), and I would agree with his conclusion:

Given their opportunities, the Democrats are still likely to net three to six governorships in November. But while that will certainly be enough reason for them to celebrate, they probably need to win Florida, New York or Texas - or net seven or eight governorships - to have something to brag about.

The GOP poll out on the NY Governor's race sure make it looks like Pataki is soft. Polling in the high 30's... he's the incumbent! With Golisano polling at 10 percent, and bucking up another $100M, Pataki is going to have to spend a lot of funds trying to knock Tom down. If this becomes a three-way race, McCall has an excellent shot to win.

Rothenberg also doesn't mention Oklahoma and Wisconsin as Democratic takeover opportunities (there's just too many of them I guess). In Orza, the Democrats are practically running in a Republican primary/general that the Democrats get to swing vote within. Richardson, as the wealthy anti-tax candidate getting 10 percent, softens up Largent, and makes it possible for Orza to win in the three-way OK contest. Wisconsin is already all but a done deal. The Republicans don't have any votes to spare toward 3rd Party candidates on the right; but Thompson is polling at 10 percent, and Doyle has been ahead of McCallum in just about every poll.

Right now, I see the Democratic party making a net gain of 6 Governor offices in 2002, and it's got more upward pressure than downward.

Note that I added the HI Democratic Primary for Governor to the primary contest.

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