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California voters: reluctant supporters of Davis & Iraq attack
In the new PPIC Statewide Survey, Gray Davis currently leads Bill Simon by 8 points (40% to 32%) among likely voters (PDF file). That's nothing spectacular, but it's similar to the 1998 standings at this time, when Davis led Lungren by 9 percent, 47-38. Davis has a 49% approval, 44% disapproval rating; Bush has a 64% approval, 32% disapproval rating from the CA likely voters polled. Camejo is going to do better than any Green candidate previously running in CA. He polled 5% (Libertarian Copeland had 3%), but only 3% among Latino voters. The LA Times has an interview with Camejo, who is progressive, and stands he's where the Democratic Party used to be before it wised up politically. This quote though, makes you wonder what alternative universe he's living in:
You can't argue with the LA Times conclusion: Camejo is a credible anti-Davis protest vote for Democratic libs--if they're willing to risk electing a right-winger. On a side note: In the poll question, "Do you approve of the way President Bush is handling the situation with Iraq and Saddam Hussein?" 54% of likely voters approve, 41% disapprove, and 5% don't know; Democrats, by a 55-39 margin disapprove. That seems to reflect quite a strong backlash towards Bush. This inadequate level of support, combined with the increased resistance in the UK to Blair, leads you to believe that they would pull back... You'd think so, oh yea, Bush doesn't read the polls; and regardless, has mandate-like support in Congress. Gephardt seems to be playing both sides of the issue-- attacking Bush for politicizing the war, while likely supporting the measure. Meanwhile, he initiates moves in Iowa; and Missouri has also recently moved up their primary date to February. JB Armstrong on Sep 27 @ 4:22 AM
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What would be really informative is if there were a poll which asked undecided voters if they were considering voting for Davis, Simon, etc. or if they had ruled out either candidate. I think you would find alot that had ruled out one candidate but were not supporting the other. Posted by: CA Pol Junkie on September 27, 2002 11:37 AM"Bush has a 64% approval, 32% disapproval" Not bad from a state he lost by 13 points. Simon could still win if the GOP would just spend some friggin' money on the race...Davis is that unpopular. Posted by: RWG on September 28, 2002 07:17 PMI live in California, and have a friend who is a well-connected liberal who's work involves meeting with high level government officials. He's been a lifelong Democrat. He said he would have voted for the Repub candidate if he proved to be more liberal than Davis. A true libetarian Republican who took progressive issues on drug laws, and was generally liberal. The Republicans are so unpopular - Davis will cream them, even though he's vastly unpopular. Davis' Progressive base has deserted him (Hense the Green Camejo polling at 9%). Republicans have so shot themselves in both feet permenantly by being arch-conservative. Liberal states where Repubs hold elected office (NY & MA for example) have liberal Repubs. CA Repubs haven't run a Liberal... in well, since long before I moved here..... I put my money on Davis winning by at least 8 points easy. - MC
I live in California, and have a friend who is a well-connected liberal who's work involves meeting with high level government officials. He's been a lifelong Democrat. He said he would have voted for the Repub candidate if he proved to be more liberal than Davis. A true libetarian Republican who took progressive issues on drug laws, and was generally liberal. The Republicans are so unpopular - Davis will cream them, even though he's vastly unpopular. Davis' Progressive base has deserted him (Hense the Green Camejo polling at 9%). Republicans have so shot themselves in both feet permenantly by being arch-conservative. Liberal states where Repubs hold elected office (NY & MA for example) have liberal Repubs. CA Repubs haven't run a Liberal... in well, since long before I moved here..... I put my money on Davis winning by at least 8 points easy. - MC
MC, I'm not saying Simon will win. He probably won't, if for no other reason than the fact that the GOP won't spend the money. But you're dreaming if you don't think this race is still in play. Just look at the polls. Davis is still well below 50 percent (he was at 38 percent in the latest Field Poll, 40 percent in another poll). If the undecideds were to break for Simon, Davis would be toast. Is Simon the best candidate the Republicans could have picked? Of course not. And if Davis were actually anywhere near 50 perecent, I would agree that he has this race in the bag. But he's not. Unfortunately, the RNC agrees with your take on the race more than they agree with mine. That's why Simon will lose. Will Davis win? Probably. Will he get a majority of the vote? Probably not. Will he win by double digits? HELL NO. Will he have any coattails? That question doesn't even merit an answer. Posted by: RWG on September 29, 2002 04:38 PMRWG, California was never in play. Repubs are quite unpopular in CA, and the positions of most national Repubs are vilified in most of California. Repubs only chance in CA would be to run a candidate who is more liberal than the Dem candidate. Riordan could have done that - or at least been competitive. Until Republicans run a liberal candidate in CA, they are doomed to be a CA laughingstock. Again, CA was never in play. Even when the polls were even, Davis had a 15x cash advantage. And Californians were always going to swing for the Dems. And only the Dem faithfull will vote in CA. - MC Posted by: MC on October 1, 2002 02:03 PMPost a comment
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