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Iowa Taping

I think Sabato's jumped the gun a bit on updated Senate rankings, moving Iowa to "toss-up" from Leans Democratic. There's no poll support of Sabato's move: The latest NP poll, done in mid-Sept, showed Harkin with a 52-40 advantage; none of the NP polls have shown Ganske within 10 percent, or Harkin under 50 percent.

It didn't look good for Harkin, but the latest page that turned (which Daily Kos reports) clearly shifted the egg back onto Ganske. However -from Political Wire- the next move showed that the guy who taped the CC has Harkin ties, and the GOP is again on the attack; while Harkin aides have clammed up; and Harkin deliberates his next move.

Unless this has further fall-out, the story looks like more of a media phenomena, especially on the internet (Pundits see major hit to Harkin campaign), then something that is going to swing voters from Harkin to Ganske. I'd be more interested in reading the transcript of the audio CD then following the tit-for-tat that's going to fade out soon anyway. Voters are probably ignoring the whole episode for the most part (it's Harkin's aides, not Harkin), especially if Harkin is able to equally attack Ganske for his "attack ads with a smile" that are upcoming. Six weeks out, Ganske had better hope this has the legs to do political damage to Harkin, because the transcript is likely to hang like a cloud over any attack ads he puts out.

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JB Armstrong on Sep 27 @ 4:33 AM | TrackBack
Comments

I think there are some very dumb Democratic Senators. Both Torricelli and Harkin were going toward relatively easy re-elections until ethic or their lack of got in the way.

I am disgusted by Torricelli and if it turns out Harkin knew about and planned this taping I;m sure my opinion of him will drop to. This whole thing is so totally stupid and I can't believe how anyone can get so caught up in the political game that they lose their better judgment.

Posted by: Ced on September 27, 2002 06:14 AM

Ask Nixon . . .

Posted by: JimGAGOP on September 27, 2002 06:30 AM

There is also a potential scandal brewing in the campaign of Rod Blagojevich in Illinois.

I've been thinking maybe I should just tune out until election day. The latest STUPID MISTAKES by Democratic candidates is really irking me. Why in the world would Harkin, Blagojevich, or any other DEM even risk scandal when they are so close to victory. It is beyond me. Some Democratic candidates are starting to remimd me of AL Gore in 2000. They make stupid mistakes and beat themselves.

Posted by: Ced on September 27, 2002 08:01 AM

Pierre, SD

I think Blagojevich would win although may be not by 20%. However, Harkin may be another matter.

Posted by: G.C. Raj on September 27, 2002 08:54 AM

The so-called Illinois scandal won't have legs -- Blagojevich failed or forgot to report moving some campaign funds to a supporter's downstate bank? Big whoop. If anything, it might help him downstate as it shows he is willing to "spread the wealth".

I know this supposed scandal is a bit more complicated, but not in a way that paints Blagojevich as corrupt or hits voters in the pocketbook. This'll blow over, especially when the intra-GOP battle in the state is far more entertaining.

Posted by: Kos on September 27, 2002 10:23 AM

Where is the Blagojevich news reported?

Posted by: RParker on September 27, 2002 10:39 AM

http://www.suntimes.com/output/news/cst-nws-gov27.html

Posted by: Kos on September 27, 2002 02:14 PM

After seeing the details, it doesn't look like there's enough there to make this into a big issue. But I really wish candidates would learn not to stonewall on these things.

Posted by: RParker on September 27, 2002 02:25 PM

Sabato is crazy. A new poll out today gives Harkin a 54-34 lead. The entire polling period covered days after this taping story came out. This one's over. Harkin will have the first easy re-elect of his career.

Posted by: ROC-Indy on September 28, 2002 10:07 AM

Is the poll with Harkin up 20 Democratic or independent (even if it's a Dem poll it means he's probably up at least 10)?

And earlier in the cycle, people were talking up Ganske as one of the GOP's best challengers and that he had a really good chance to win (and this was AFTER the Jeffords switch, which gave Harkin has top trump card, the chairmanship of the Agriculture Committee). Why hasn't he been the candidate everyone thought he would be?

Posted by: AVADem on September 28, 2002 12:22 PM

It was a Des Moines Register poll. One caution: though it was taken over the course of the days the tape "scandal" percolated -- and showed no damage over those days -- it's possible, should a "Harkin did SOMETHING wrong" feeling take hold, this poll might have been too early to catch it. But probably not -- that's a big gap to bridge; Iowa is a (lately) Dem-leaning state, and a solid majority seems to have at least provisionally decided to keep Harkin.

At this point, it's hard to imagine any GOP-er's numbers going higher. They've already had their best boost (September 11th anniversary Bush suck-up; Iraq 24/7); from here on out it's going to be mostly the economy, stupid (whether the press emphasizes it or not). I expect many Republican candidates to hit a trough in October.

Posted by: demtom on September 28, 2002 01:10 PM

AVADem: Conventional wisdom held that Greg Ganske was one of the better GOP challengers because he is one of the more moderate Republicans. The thought was that was a perfect fit for Iowa, against the more liberal Harkin, who always seems to be in tough reelection fights. Often, that conventional wisdom holds true. But in this case, I don't think it was. I think Bill Salier, the more conservative candidate would have done better. Ganske does not generate much enthusiasm amongst his base (they consider him far too moderate), and is not a very good campaigner.

Posted by: ROC-Indy on September 28, 2002 01:50 PM

Too bad for Ganske there were no good cars made in 1974.

Posted by: AVADem on September 29, 2002 08:12 PM
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