Nice update for your page, MyDD, looking good buddy. I like to design web pages also. Keep it up....now to Jeb

He is gonna lose, the polls dont reflect turnout. Period.

Pierre, SD

This race and the Texas Governor's races could be the biggest upsets in the making and none of the pundits want even to talk about it. The Florida Governor's race could well be...well another repeat of Florida 2000, going all the way to the Supreme Court...ie., if the current trends hold.

In absolute numbers Sabato is right, GOP is leading in 220 races. But, in at least 10 of the 25 races where polling is available, the GOP leader is well under 50, including Utah 1, where the GOP is ahead 42-31. But, calling races in Colorado and other places based on how they voted in the past, or whether Bush carried the state or not, is bogus. If it is rained in Denver yesterday, does it mean it would be raining in Denver next week? This kind of attitude is in the mind of most American pollsters whether in politics or in sports.

we can only hope that the democrats in miami and broward actually test the machines and get used to how they work before the election day in november.

i'm no fan of florida republicans or jeb bush, but i do believe in taking responsibility, and apparently the dems at the local level in those counties didn't run any test trials of their new voting machines for the the primaries earlier this month, hence the repeat of the 2000 fiasco.

if they can get their act together, and if the unspoken (by white media) cabal of angry black voters make good on their promise to remember 2000 in the 2002 election, i think jeb is outta here.

remember, fool me once...shame on...shame on you...fool me you can't get fooled again.

An Analysis of the Bush-McBride Debate:

Friday was the first debate between Bill McBride and Jeb Bush. The focus was mainly about education and spending. Overall the candidate with better responses was the Governor. While I support McBride and feel he would make a better governor, I feel he could of performed much better in this debate. In my opinion he was too green up against the governor and Bush took advantage of that by playing his experience and hitting McBride on spending. While McBride had a couple of one-two punches in what was mostly rhetoric on his part, the governor did little defending and it was McBride who was defending his spending proposals. If McBride wants to win in November he needs to attack Bush more and stop defending himself. Here is an in-depth look at what I observed within the debates:

Opening Statements: McBride was smart to get right to the core matter, which was education. Bush then defended his record. This was McBride’s opportunity to build momentum and crush Bush, but instead he played out an evasive tactic throughout the debate. I didn’t like the moderator; he was not a good one and didn’t encourage more development of the subject of education right when McBride was about to strike. There should have been more time in the beginning toward the topic before they switched categories.

Key Points:

1. Control of the debate: McBride lost control of the debate by maintaining evasiveness and a defensive stand. Bush took the ball and ran with it hitting McBride as a Liberal Tax and Spender. There was a moment of weakness on the governor’s part when he compared his plan to McBride’s plan and said his plan asks for less money than McBride’s. From what I’ve read this is not true. The governor is asking for more and does not have a built in safe guard if in the event that the small class size initiative wins approval. Plus Bush is proposing a borrowing tactic with bonds to pay for schools. McBride could of turn the tables and attack Bush by claiming he wants to increase the debt of the state. But he choose to defend his plan and let Bush control the debate.
2. FCAT: Bush really hurt McBride on experience by stating that if McBride disbands the FCAT under the new federal education law passed by democrats and republicans in the senate, Florida would not be eligible for some 2 Billion Dollars in Federal Education Spending. McBride’s response was, “I think we need to listen to our parents more.” My question is: Did the money Bush state go towards funding the operations of the FCAT or does it go towards improving our schools? If it just goes for paying the FCAT then McBride could of ripped into Bush. My guess is the money mentioned by Bush won’t make much of a difference anyways once it’s broken down at the local level.
3. Teachers’ salaries: Bush’s strongest argument was you can’t have it both ways. I agree. If McBride is advocating the Small Class Size Initiative then funding increases in teachers salaries are going to be incredibly difficult without raising taxes or getting bonds. McBride evaded this too but should of attacked on the points mentioned above.
4. Helping College Students Out: The Republican Legislature is talking of decoupling the Bright Future program as a result of deficit. I don’t know what Bush’s plan for the program is but he mentioned more help for need-based scholarships. I talked to McBride in person about what he would do for preserving the Bright Future’s program when I meet him for the first time. He could of counter Bush’s need based bias of the Bright Future Program and instead take an argument against decoupling. In my opinion there is enough need-based scholarships for college; and the income brackets for those scholarships are really low. Low middle income to middle class families are not targeted enough. I think right now the Bright Future’s Program is the best program in place to cover all the spectrums. McBride could have made an excellent case here but avoided the issue.
5. Crime: Crime is lower. - Depends on what statistics you look at. I give the benefit of the doubt to the governor and McBride was good not to attack Bush on this issue.
6. Voting screw-ups: Bush Blamed Dem Poll Workers in Broward, Palm Beach and Miami Dade. McBride Blamed Bush for not acting more. Neither was entirely right. Bush should of focused on the areas that were problematic during 2000 and Poll Workers need to get their act together in the counties that don’t know how to use the darn computers. It’s amusing that they brought up the matter though! More emphasis on the 2000 election is good for McBride.

I hope McBride does a better job in the next debate. He needs to use prosecuting tactics and pound away where the governor is weak and not divert to a defensive stand. I think with Russert as the next moderator we might see a better debate.

I also watched the debate and have to agree that Bush had the better responses. (Even though McBride's story of the Orange picker that only works when the boss is looking analogy I thought was very nice!) The one thing I noticed though was the moderator seemed a bit biased, I noticed he gave Bush 3 or 4 times to rebut McBrides Response (after both of them each responded to the question) and I think he only gave McBride a chance once, he also seemed to gear his questions that seemed to bring up the cost of the Class side initiative and how he was going to pay for it (even though McBride says he supports it, It isn't his plan and not part of his education proposal)

Thats my review

I agree with Jake. The moderator was clearly bias. He catered the questions to help Bush and didn't even given equal amounts of time for Mcbride to rebuttle. Instead he just moved on. Notice in the begining when McBride was about to rebuttle to the difference in his education plan the moderator change the subject completly. No 30seconds! Russert would of dwelled on the education issue much longer.

Also notice that Governor Bush called McBride- "Bill" the whole time. A shrewed tactic to make him appear inexperienced. Kind of a stunt Kennedy pulled on Nixon by calling him Mr. Nixon instead of the vice president. This debate was rigged, hopefully Mcbride learns from his mistakes and goes for Bush's throat when Jeb and Bill are on Russert.

Mc Bride can stand some policy briefing by experts to bring him up to speed on some of the more technical legislative and policy issues.

And assuredly, the anchor was very biased giving Bush repeated openings to rebut McBride and giving Mc Bride only one chance to respond.

However, at least one article I saw claimed that the debate was a draw, with McBride benefiting since he held his own on the same stage with Bush. Let me add that he articulated a clear and repeated critique of Bush:

He's the CEO of the state, and whether its the elections, Department of Child Welfare, Schools, Colleges, or health care, Bush claims that there is nothing wrong or that it is not his fault. Mc Bride went on to say, if you think that nothing is wrong, then vote for Bush. But if you think that there are problems and that we need change, then vote for a change.

This could use some refinement, but the basic message came through.

i think that mcbride was right i think that there are major issues that hover over us in this state and i think that mcbride had the right idea and deserved to be govener