They don't have the Oregon race on the list either. They should, even if it would probably be considered a Republican lean at this point.

If Sabato considers the taping flap to be scandalous enough to change Harkin Ganske to a tossup, how about Dick Armey's comment at a Katharine Harris for Congress event that liberal Jews are shallow bleeding heart pseudo intellectuals while conservative Jews are intelligent. Talk about stereotyping! And in an area with a substantial Jewish population, Sarasota/ Bradenton! Why doesn't Sabato move that race to a tossup after Armey's outburst and Harris' reluctance to disassociate herself from it.

Harkin's 20-point lead is great, but it's bound to go down a little after this incident. Still, he seems to have stopped the bleeding. My guess is that if the Des Moines Register did another poll a week from now, the lead would be 10-12 points. He still should win.

Mr. Liberal-for a race that, this time last year, a lot of people thought he'd lose, I'll take a 12-point lead with a month to go any day. What a role-reversal we've seen in Iowa-a year ago, CW held that Harkin was in deep trouble, but Vilsak was a shoo-in, and his coattails would be crucial to Harkin's survival; fast-forward a year, and budget troubles have rendere Vilsak highly vulnerable, but with Ganske not being the candidate some thought he would be, Harkin looks in pretty good shape, and Vilsak needs his help.

RIP Patsy Mink.

Oh dear...thanks for the news bulletin, AVADem. I just read about it. RIP, Patsy Mink indeed. What a great, courageous woman she was.

http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2002/Sep/28/br/br12p.html

Among her accomplishments in 48 years of politics was the passage of Title IX. She will be surely missed, I'm sure.

I'm not going to discuss the political situation regarding a recently deceased person.

About Iowa, I agree that it's a 180-degree turn from a year ago.

Patsy Mink-12/6/27-9/28/02

Let me echo the sentiment expressed about Patsy Mink. We mourn her loss and empathize with those who were close with her in their time of sorrow. A great American, whose memory we should always preserve.

But what happens to her seat? Do the Democrats do a Carnahan, or can she be replaced on the ballot? If possible, I really don't see the GOPer winning-he's a liveral-hating right-wing wacko whose website prominently features a photo of himself with Ollie North.

Essentially, AVADem, they will probably do a Carnahan. The deadline for replacing a candidate on the ballot was last Thursday. However, Mink will stay on the ballot. If she wins, a special election will be held to succeed her. As for her opponent, BobMcDermott, he was unlikely to win before her death anyway. I don't see him winning now.

More Hawaii News: A new independent poll from a Hawaii Newspaper had these results for Governor:

Lingle-47
Hirono-39
Others-2
Undecided-12

Here's a link: http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2002/Sep/29/ln/ln01a.html

Among other things, the article says that Hirono is doing well with Case voters, and seems to be following the comeback of Governor Ceyatano in 1998 against Lingle.

In June, a poll from the same newspaper had a 47-32 lead for Lingle.

Speaking of crazy calls... here's your first "non-crap" poll that shows Forrester up by double digits. Thirteen, in fact.

Star Ledger/Eagleton Poll: 47 - 34.
http://slerp.rutgers.edu/releases/Sen-02.pdf

That's a huge move for Forrester in the last two weeks, and that doesn't even factor in the damage caused by the Chang memo.

Torricelli's own campaign's released the best numbers they could manufacture, 41 - 41. Without leaners, Forrester leads 39 - 37.

And lastly, a poll of *only* Hudson County voters (the most heavily urban and Democratic area of the state) shows Torricelli with a miserable 46 - 23 lead. To put this in perspective, Torricelli won Hudson in 1996 by 70 - 30. And in 2000, Corzine won there 72 - 28. Smells like trouble is a brewing, no?

Do you really still think this one leans Dem?

Although my item below doesn't necessarily fit into this thread, I need someplace to put it:

If you look at the most recent generic congressional ballot readings http://pollingreport.com/cong2002.htm
you'll see that the Democrats are leading in virtually all of them (even Fox!). In fact, the Newsweek poll is ALMOST beyond the margin of error. I know that many of you are skeptical about the predictive significance of the generic ballot, but if one party is clearly ahead going into election day, that party will usually win the majority of seats. What also makes this interesting is that the conventional wisdom in the media is that the Republicans are in the ascendancy due to Bush's push on Iraq.

Actually, Mr. Moderate, the pollsters polled more Republicans than Democrats. As you should know, Democrats have a 7-8 point voter registration advantage over Republicans in the state: Something like 33-25, with the rest Independents. This poll had it 30-28 Republican, a 5-point swing beyond what it usually is. Also, 42% of those who voted in 2001 were Democrats. If even 35-37% of Democrats vote this year, then that has to be reflected in the surveys. Forrester is still leading, but not by 13.

But yes, I would say this race does now lean to Forrester, especially after the Chang Memo.

If I were Torricelli,I would release all documents referring to the case NOW. Get the damage out of the way, then frame the race as a issue campaign. In fact, I would have released all the documents back in January, after the FBI abandoned the case. Letting this tidbits of scandal come out drip by drip is Chinese Water Torture for Democratic candidates this year, like Tim Carden (who, by the way, raised at least 750,000 at a fundraiser last night in New Jersey. So far, we've raised well over a million, probably around 1.5 by now. Tim is well prepared to take on Mike Ferguson.

Oh yeah, and Marge Roukema has all, but announced that she will stay neutral in the Sumers-Garrett race. At least, that's what I've heard.

Mr. Moderate, where do live in NJ? Have you heard of Vij Pawar? That guy is brilliant!

I'm well aware of the Torricelli spin on the polling. Here's the polling director's response:

>>"But Cliff Zukin, the director of the poll, said the proportions were a product of sagging interest in the race by Democratic voters.

"The Democrats we talked to in this poll are less interested and less engaged in the election, which may well be a comment on how enthusiastic they are about their candidate," said Zukin. "We accurately measured what's out there at this time."<<

Basically, what they're saying is this - they called a representative sample of New Jersey voters, meaning, they called more Democrats than Republicans, 805 in total, according to the poll. Now, of those 805, they determined that 547 were likely to vote. Of those 547, more were Republican than Democrat (by a very small margin), and yet more were Independent. I think that data reflects this race very well, in that Democrats are less likely to vote despite having a registration advantage. I'd be careful comparing this election to 2001, when it was the Republicans who had a candidate that inspired them to stay home.

Personally, I think this race Forrester's by double digits and still moving away from Torricelli. I'm glad a poll finally came out to reflect poor Dem turnout in New Jersey, and I think Forrester is on track to win the state by 16.

Oh, and I live in Pittstown, NJ. That's Hunterdon County, the new GOP heart of Mike Ferguson's new district.

Vij is the 'no-shot-in-hell' candidate running against Frelinghuysen in the eleventh, right?

On the Iowa poll putting harkin up by 20. What was the date of the poll? It may not have been able to account for the taping thing. Either way, it would be a huge change for harkin to have to sweat re-election.

I didn't know that information, Mr. Moderate. Thanks. I'll wait to see what happens after the Chang Memo, but it doesn't look good for Torricelli right now.

Yes, Vij Pawar is the "sacrificial lamb" against Freylingheusen. However, he's young, he's intelligent, and he has plenty of charisma. He also has some very detailed stances on the issues. He won't knock off Freylingheusen (no one ever will), but he has a bright future ahead of him.

I'm glad to see you also live in Ferguson's district. Starting in January, you'll have a much better Congressman representing you, if I may say so. :)

Oh? You consider Tim Carden to be better than Rush Holt? ;)

Vij Pawar is a bit too left to win where he lives now. If he wants a future, he'll take a page from Mike Ferguson and move the hell out of the 11th and into a district that's actually winnable.

Does Frelinghuysen have a son or daughter who can keep the family in the New Jersey political picture for another 200 years? ;-)

Fret not, for Mr. Frelinghuysen has two children to carry on the tradition.

Are GOP dreams about to be dealt a setback? AP is reporting -- and Josh Marshall says it's the buzz of DC -- that Torricelli may withdraw from the race. I'm not sure of the logistics, but plugging in any other Democrat would alter the race dramatically. Forrester's only candidate-rationale is "I'm the un-Torricelli"; eliminating that would transform it into a standard Dem/Rep face-off in what seems a less favorable GOP climate by the minute (check the wall Street ticker).

If this happens, it's reminscent of the (I believe) 1990 Minnesota Governors race. The GOP had nominated a rightie, who was already trailing when he was found (details hazy) swimming nude with young girls. He was dropped in favor of Arne Carlson, the moderate many in the party had wanted to begin with, who went on to win.

Not being a Torricelli fan but desperately wanting a Dem majority, I can endorse this scenario 110%.

With all the embarassing actions of the Democratic Party, circle Election day (November 5th) that will be the day the Republicans regain control of the Senate (MO), and starting next year I see a Senate that is 55 Republicans 45 Democrats (Jeffords is a Democrat far as I am concerned).