Indy polls show both Bently and Morella ahead in Maryland.

Bentlys lead was only a few points and Morellas race in still in its infancy, but never the less this is where we stand.

I've seen RNC polls, lots of them, that show it a race, but nothing NP. If it was winnable for the GOP, Ehrlich would have stayed. Gore's margin went from 43 percent to 59 percent in the new district, which also now has a 27 percent black population.

I am not a House expert, but I don't see how you can have CT-5 as leaning Democrat. I haven't seen one poll that gives Maloney the lead (although there could be some out there). You are also underestimating Morella in Maryland, she is a tough tough campaigner and should not be taken lightly. TX-23 is leaning to Bonilla, I would imagine Hayes will also win NC, but I haven't seen any polling to substantiate this. Overall, it looks like it will be another 2 years of GOP rule in the House, (although still very fulid given Iraq, economy, etc.)

I am projecting those takeovers, not going by the polls.

I wish I had a link but its NP polls I have seen that show the Bently race close.

I really think this race is 50-50.

Gores win in the redrawn district is actually within 1/10th percent of the state(in the 57% area),so is Stenny Hoyars redrawn district,about 1/10% difference from the state at large,Hoyars slightly less,Ehrlichs slightly more.

When Ehrlich decided to run for the Governor,most assumed he would be thrown into Bartlits district(thought Bartlett would be thrown into a district with Morella with about a 55% Dem performance and the southern part of Morellas district in Montgomery County would be heavily Democratic) which would be heavily conservative.

Ehrlich was told by a conservative eyeing the new right wing district to run for governor because you will loose this seat for sure in the primary.And he did.

It wasnt very popular to split Montgomery County however,so it didnt happen.Basically Hoyars district was shored up,Ehrlichs was totally remade to favor Dems,Wayne Gilcharest got his already GOP leaning district made heavily GOP,Bartletts district was made even more heavily GOP,and Cardins seat became the most competitive of any seat in the state(so much so that he nearly retired due to such changes)though Gore still won by about 13 points.

Ehrlich probabilly could win in the new district IMO,but Bently could have a slightly harder time.Its 50-50,Bently is considered moderate(although odd,she is staunchly against most trade laws on the books,where as most "moderates" are go along elitest types)plus is very well known.Ehlich should help her if anything as the top GOPer,plus back when Bentlys district wasnt so conservative(as it became in 1992-2002,but more so than the newly drawn district) she beat Townsend 3-2 in 1986.

Bently isnt going to be beat by more than 4-6 points if she can be beat at all.

Good points. I'll look around for those polls. It is still in the top-50.

Unfortunately, I do think Morella is going to lose. While she is very popular in her district (and rightfully so), to her highly educated constituents, the "a vote for Connie Morella is a vote for Majority Leader Tom DeLay" argument actually means something. Don't forget 200-in a more Republican district, her opponent, Terry Lierman, who couldn't shine Chris Van Hollen's shoes, could come up with nothing negative about her except "She's a Republican", yet almost beat her-and probably would have if the Washington Post didn't hate Jim Moran. She is revered by her constituents, but to many of them, she is a luxury they can't afford.

As for the 2nd, Glendening simply did what Schaefer should've been done 10 years ago, but wouldn't do because of his close friendship with Bentley. If Bentley were 20 years younger, she'd win, but she's 80, and that could hurt her. Ruppersburger 51-48.

The Washington Post will probably endorse Chris Van Hollen. As said on CNN, the 8th is one of the few places where people actually care who a particular paper endorses.

Just to clear something up,Hoyars district had nothing to do with the rest of these seats.

I shouldnt have included his southern disrict as it was irrevelant to all the others,basicaly.

The Democrats origonal hope was to take a sliver of Bartletts district(Frederick County where Bartlett resides)and combine it with half of Morellas Montgomery County district(also where Morella lives) and hope Bartlett won the primary then loose in the 55% Dem district,then use the bottom part of Montgomery County and other parts of the state to form a new Dem district.

Ehrlichs district would see its heavily conservative parts thrown into Bartletts 6th congressional district(which would have removed Bartletts house however into Morellas district,so it wouldnt be Bartletts seat anymore in reality)and into Gilcharests district,then use the rest of the district(the less conservative but still conservatuive leaning parts)to combine with Cardins district(where Cardin lives) and it would be less Democratic,but would allow many parts of Cardins old district to be used to strengthen other Dem seats.

The new scenario still works good for Dems in numbers(actually better) but the old relics Morella and Bently can still run in districts they can have a 50/50 chance in.If those 2 loose,then only Cardins seat will be competitive(around 55% Dem performance)and then only 2 GOP districts.

The first Dem plan would have had at least 1 more 55% Dem district.

Sorry,one more clarifaction.

In the old Dem plan I think Bently's house would have been thrown into the heavily conservative GOP northern and western Maryland district bartlett has represented,she couldnt win the primary(Ehrlichs house would have been).Bently wouldnt have beaten Cardin even if her house remained in the district.

Morella probabilly would have lost to a conservative(like Bartlett) in the district they were combined into,but Dems would win the general.

The old plan would have guranteed Dems 6 seats in 2002.