Was anyone else listening to NPR last night after Bush's speech? I thought Lincoln Chafee sounded very much like a future Democrat (or, at the very least, a future Independent-who-caucuses-with-the-Democrats).

Although I really think the Democrats will pick up somewhere between 1-3 seats, in the event things go poorly on election day, I think the GOP would need TWO pickups in order gain control of the Senate.

Speaking of the updated Senate rankings, I'm curious about South Carolina. It seems like mydd is about the only place I've seen Sanders over Graham. What's behind this pick?

This endorsement could be pivotal for Wellstone because of his war oppposition. It will help him deflect Coleman's negative attacks. It also seems Pawlenty just shot himself in the foot.

Pawlenty's mistake is Penny's gain and not Moe's. Moe needs Pawlenty to take 30% for Moe to win.

As for Sanders, while I still hold out hope for him, I was shocked to read Robert Redford is going to SC to do a Sanders fundraiser. I can see Lindsey Graham's commercials already.

Tom Daschle, when he was first running for the U.S. Senate in '86, survived an attack on his alleged link to Jane Fonda. The focal point of the attack: Not Vietnam (although that certainly would have lingered in people's minds), but Fonda's condemnation of meat, a hot issue in beef-producing South Dakota. See http://www.time.com/time/archive/preview/0,10987,1101861103-143622,00.html Robert Redford should be tame by comparison.

Alan:

But, the key statement was that Abdnor had pulled ahead of Daschle. Until the morning of November 4, the pundits including Charlie Cooke and Rothenberg were saying that Abdnor was going to win. Do many people even no Abdnor now? Bet many know who Daschle is (he he!)

I drove through Minnesota about a month ago and tried to get a sense of things from signs in all these little towns I passed. In doing that, a few things seemed pretty clear. There is enormous support for Penny. I'll be very surprised if he loses, based on what I saw.

There were easily more Wellstone signs than Coleman signs. Even more significantly, quite a few Wellstone signs were independently displayed while almost all of the Coleman signs were in a cluster, indicating to me an obvious party supporter.

This endorsement will help protect Wellstone from the attack which is certain to come after he votes against the war resolution. A little innoculation will help him keep this seat.

As for South Carolina, search mydd's blog archives for the article that explains exactly why Jerome is predicting Sanders to take this seat. After watching the debate between Graham & Sanders earlier this week, I think Jerome's absolutely right.

Graham is not going to lose to Sanders in South Carolina. Sanders would win in New York, granted, but not here. Those that are picking Sanders simply don't understand the electorate there and are projecting their own values and hopes into the race.

New Zogby polls have Carnahan-Talent tied in Missouri Senate and a new Houston TV poll has Perry over 20 points ahead of Sanchez for the governor's race (and this was before the Morales endoresment of Perry today), and Cornyn is over 20 points up on Kirk in the Senate race.

"New Zogby polls have Carnahan-Talent tied "

Don't get me wrong..I hope you are right, but wasn't it a CRAP poll?

I don't buy that Texas poll. It has Perry ahead in South Texas by nearly 2 to 1. There's no reason to believe that's even close to accurate. I'll wait for some more polls before writing that race off.

Zogby state polls have often shown a HUGE disconnect from the actual results. In state races, Zogby is willing to deliver the desired results of the party buying the poll.

Then I guess the one that had Carnahan up by 8 points last month was bunk too, huh? =) It must've been...a race does not go from being a tie to one candidate being 8 points ahead in a single month, unless a candidate makes a MAJOR ****up.

I agree RWG. And I didn't know he showed such a result last month :)

Lot of volatality in the Missouri race. Zogby was accurate in all state polls in 2000 except California where he polled for the GOP and showed the race as tied.

NBC5 Poll is a fraud. Why? They do not give information on how the poll was conducted, and asks us to call them. Sure sounds fishy.

The Missouri Poll is Survey USA Poll and not Zogby Poll. Go to Taegan's Political Wire. Survey USA Poll is a bunch of crap. It shows Sibelius leading by 20 points in KS...nonsense! and it also shows Rendell ahead by 20 points...more nonsense. Sibelius is ahead by 6-10 at most and Rendell is not ahead by more than 15. It also showed the Dem ahead of GOP by 25 points in Illinois...I believe that Lincoln's land is moving towards the Dems...but by 25 points?...total nonsense.

The SurveyUSA poll also registered an 18 point swing away from Carnahan in Kansas City while she gained 8 points in Central Missouri. Someone explain to me why that would make sense.

"Zogby was accurate in all state polls in 2000 except California where he polled for the GOP and showed the race as tied."

Nope, he also pushed a bunch of crap in the Clinton/Lazio race.

JDW:

Sorry. My mistake. Again, I think he polled for the GOP.

In Mass:

The Survey USA poll is a bunch of bull crap...the same with the Texas NBC 5 fraud released today.

I didn't believe it when they said Carnahan was supposedly up by 8, and I don't believe it's tied now. She's probably up by about three-by no means a done deal, but it's hers to lose.

No way that Kirk is behind by 20 with the inroads he makes in GOP territory with his popularity around Dallas and its environs. He may be behind... BUT NOT THAT FAR BEHIND!

memphisvol,
A Dan Morales endorsement does not help Perry. That man can be indicted by the feds at any time. Funny how the repubs would bring up the tobacco lawsuit when he was a candidate, but now that suit has gone away?
The NBC5 poll is one of those survey crap polls that the news stations like. No way Perry could be beating Sanchez in South texas 2-1, not even by two points.

Most of the Texas political experts, Cal Jilson SMU, Bruce Buchanan UT, and Richard Murray Univ of Houston have discredited that poll.

I don't believe this poll is accurate either. It goes totally against the polling patterns already established in this race. And there is no way that either Kirk or Sanchez are down 20 something points.

Finance board rules against Pawlenty

"A state ethics board issued a decision Thursday that threatens to all but shut down Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim Pawlenty's campaign in the final weeks of the race.

The Campaign Finance and Disclosure Board ruled that Pawlenty's campaign and the Republican Party illegally cooperated on a series of television commercials, skirting campaign spending limits. Pawlenty aides indicated they will appeal in court."

http://startribune.com/stories/587/3357959.html