Senate in General:

AC, Mr. Moderate-I'm sorry, but I'm giving up on the Senate. Allard and Hutchinson are toast. I just saw another Colorado poll at the Rocky Mountain news site that convinces me it's over. His campaign has stunk. I think every other Republican is safe, including Texas and New Hampshire.

So, 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans to start. We have to pick up three seats to regain control, in my eyes. We have to win a straight of Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and New Jersey to take back certain control.

In many ways, House Democrats and Senate Republicans have the same exact problem. They have to win every competitive race, and I can't see it happening.

""The husband of GOP House candidate Ginny Brown-Waite and a Waite campaign aide got caught stealing signs for Waite's opponent, Democratic Rep. Karen Thurman.""
No link yet...

LMAO, what fodder for Thurman.

I think NH is more likely to turn over than CO. I see the Democrats picking up AR, CO, NH, and two of the other open seats for a gain of 5. I'm not convinced that Gordon Smith or Jim Inhofe are safe, but I'm giving them a slighte edge at the moment. Democrats should not lose any of their Senate seats.

BushRep, you should worry about NH, the momentum has shifted in the race. Sununu's polls show the race tied and the independent poll shows her ahead as well as Benson. Shaheen has a great get out the vote effor. She is always behind in the polls untill she pulls a last minute win. Smith isn't stopping the write in campaign for him. That should take a couple points from Sununu. Some republicans wont vote. Others will vote for the Libertarian canidate. I think the biggest thing that will hurt Sununu is his comment that he has done nothing out of interest of the Republican Party. Shaheen really needs to keep reminding people that because that shows that he puts his party above NH. As of now the race is a tossup, with momentum going for Shaheen.

Bush rep, in a midterm election with lower turnout than the Presidential, you have to throw CW out the door. Ask yourself why Cornyn can't put away Kirk? Cornyn has never polled above 42%, and he's a statewide official, that gets in small town papers everyday.
Cornyn's spokesman Dave Beckwith ought to be running against Kirk. We here from him more than Cornyn. Repubs in Dallas are worried about the turnout on their side. Hell, even the Dallas Republican DA has 4x8 yard signs and he'll win by 10 points.

Cornyn is crook....Enron and other issues. Kirk is a poor strategist...one thing he should have learnt especially in a racist state such as Texas is to divide the white population...instead he goes on the air to say how minorities have to fight the Iraq war in disproportionate numbers. Of course, the Texas races have an interesting mixture as well. After years of listening to black Uncle Toms...particularly Clarence Thomas and Asian American Aunt Jemimas such as Michelle Malkin, my search for a Hispanic Uncle Tom is over...no, not Miguel Gonzales, not Judge Estrada or Judge Cabaranes...the award for Hispanic Uncle Tom goes to former Texas AG Morales...not just for endorsing Perry over Sanchez, but for siding with Hopwood on Affirmitive Action without providing solution to the minority underrepresentation. In this regard, the President did a lot more to increase qualified minority enrollment in Texas than that Uncle Tom Morales.

Texas is off the table for Democrats. Try again another year. The frontrunner is a crook, and if Bill Simon were not running, he'd be the joke of the year. Oregon and Oklahoma are completely safe now. The DNSC doesn't have the money.

As far as Shaheen's tendency to come from behind, everybody said the same exact thing about Bob Smith. He never led in any poll but always won.

What happened?

What is it with Raj and racism?

Well if even BushRep is conceding a Democratic Senate, I think we should start focusing on the House.

As far as the open seats, I have several comments. There are six open seats, by the way.

Texas-Kirk has a future, maybe in the Bush administration. If I were Bush, if Martinez, etc. leaves to seek another office, I'd put Kirk in.

Tennessee-Clement, according to media reports, messed up the debates. There is no reason to vote against Alexander for all he has done for Tennessee. He is what a Senator should be.

South Carolina-I know everyone likes Sanders on the Democratic side, but he isn't going to win. The Republican is too near-incumbent status to lose. Democrats would be better off concentrating on the Gubernatorial race:

http://greenvilleonline.com/news/2002/10/10/2002101029788.htm

North Carolina-Bowles is just about the worst candidate the Democrats could have nominated. He can't attack Dole because if Dole attacks him back, she has enough ammunition to free North Carolina from the continent.

New Hampshire and New Jersey we have discussed, ad nauseum.

AVADem,

The same reason Senate Republicans are having problems is the same reason House Democrats are having problems.

If anything this year isn't going to happen, it is Democrats taking back the House.

Though I do think it's a little ironic that BushRep is more certain than I am of Senator Strickland. Allard hasn't run a good campaign, but as long as Owens is cruising to re-election, I have to think he'll have at least some coattails that could pull Allard over the top.

The Zogby poll was based on Cornyn's ads and Kirk's Iraq mistake. The NBC5 poll was a crap survey poll. So poll do you have the takes Texas off the table. Most Texas insiders have the race in the single digits with a Cornyn lead.

Unlike in Penn, Texans don't vote lockstep. As LBJ became Vice President, Texans voted for an obscure professor from Wichita Falls named John Tower to take LBJ's seat.

In 1990 Ann Richards was elected Gov, while Phil Gramm won in a landslide. 41 and 43 both campaigned to defeat Richards, although they wouldn't go near Clayton Williams since he had ethical problems.

To expand on BushRep's previous comment, the latest Colorado poll gives Allard a 39% to 35% lead over Strickland, the Democrat, well within the margin of error of that survey.

Interestingly, 26% of Coloradoans polled say they don't like either candidate but the only alternative on the ballot is the ever-wild and wacky Rick Stanley, the gun-tottin' Libertarian who's drawing about 5%.

No Green candidate filed in this race so the alternative for liberals and other disgusted voters is not to vote for Senate....my choice. The campaigns of both Strickland and Allard have been disgraceful, and Strickland and Allard are both cheerleaders for war.

I think the the race has now become Allard's to lose (and he's working hard at it) and Strickland's to win (and he's doing well, at least on TV). Right now, edge to Strickland.

Owen is not really cruising. His Treasurer resigned after making comments that illegals (Hispanics) come to this country, and use welfare money to purchase houses. Ironically, a few people in Parker and Evergreen, CO said the same thing to me...but they also said that people should never sell houses to Asian families, because Asian kids would deny whites the opportunity to win awards and college scholarships.

Colorado Pundit can correct me about Owen's Treasurer if I am wrong. Incidentally, contrary to CW insided the beltway there was very little coverage of Iraq on the frontpage last week and this week leading upto the vote. Last week (October 2), the newspaper was full of Qwest and Allard's stand on Social Security. Colo Pundit can correct me if I am wrong on this one as well.

I second BushRep's comments about Bowles in North Carolina. As a previous resident of that state I could think of at least a dozen other Dems who would have put up a better fight, or even won, against Elizabeth Dole. Unfortunately, Bowles had the big bucks to defeat secretary of state Elaine Marshall and former state house speaker Dan Blue in the Dem primary.

Bowles is a decent guy but posesses a loser profile for North Carolina: Charlotte investment banker, former Clinton chief of staff, exceedingly wooden personality (at least on the stump) and married into a weathy South Carolina textile family that's been shipping jobs overseas. He's best behind the scenes, not as a candidate.

Dole is known to have a towering temper but a lowrise intellect. As a senator she'll be a disappointment and a logical target for the Dems in 2008. She hasn't lived in North Carolina for decades and is simply using the state as a convenient political platform.

BushRep--I fail to see why you are so sure about SC. I have family and friends in this state. Lindsey Graham made a lot of people mad with his interference in the GOP Gubernatorial Primary. My family members who voted for Bush have turned their back on him because of his stance on Iraq and his poor handling of the economy. What will decide this race is how the Midlands section of the state votes.

Im predicting Dems will win in AR, NH, CO, and Tx or SC. I see the republicans winning between 0-2 seats out of NJ, GA, MN, SD, and MO.

Considering how fast Taylor in Montana got out of the Senate race after insinuations about him being gay, I wonder if it'll come up in South Carolina soon? (Not that it should)

Dems will win AR, NH, CO, MO.NJ, should be banneryear, house up for grabs.

Why shouldn't it come up in SC? I thought candidates sex lives were fair game. That was the standard set by the Republicans. Let them die by the sword they live upon.

We didn't create it. It is just part of the Democratic hypocrisy.

The Democratic Party has always touted Jefferson's idea of religious freedom, but sure enough it didn't stop Democrats for attacking Lincoln over unorthodox religious views.

The Democratic Party always has been, and still is the party of hypocrisy.

Go ahead and spend money in South Carolina. You couldn't do more to help the GOP.

Bush Rep

I can't even beleive you said that. Your party has cornered the market on hypocrisy. Just look at the facts and this will be borne out.

On SC, I think you and a lot of people are going to be suprised when Hodges wins re-election and Sanders either wins outright or come as close as 49-51 with Graham. All signs are pointing to a narrow Hodges win and a very close Senate race.

No, my party has believed in the sanctity of human life from its beginnings in the 1850's. We opposed slavery because it violated the decency of man. We oppose abortion because it is violates the deceny of man.

My party is not hypocritical. Never has been. Never will be.

BushRep, so much with the making me laff and laff. Thankee.

A KELO-TV poll; conducted "the first week of October" by The Research Group; surveyed 600 regis. voters; margin of error +/- 4% (KELOland,com, 10/11). Tested: Gov. Bill Janklow (R) and ex-Gov. Ralph Herseth (D) granddaughter Stephanie Herseth (D).

General Election Matchup
Now 8/02
Herseth 45% 44%
Janklow 41 41
Other 1 2
Undec. 13 13
KELOland.com reports, "Stephanie Herseth is no longer the underdog. In fact, the newcomer candidate holds a slight edge over political powerhouse, Governor Bill Janklow in the race for South Dakota's seat in the U.S. House." Herseth: "We're going to keep running like we're four or five points down, as we've done from the very beginning, both in the primary and the general election." Meanwhile, Janklow manager Jim Hagen "questions the poll's results": "Our internal polling has shown us with a comfortable lead, we're starting to pull away, bottom line is this, we're going to keep working very hard through the election day" (10/11).

LETS GO Stephanie =)

I trust Mason-Dixon a lot more than Keloland. Perhaps a younger candidate might have been a better candidate. I think, at day's end, South Dakota residents are not going to turn on the man they have chosen to be their Governor for sixteen years.

Janklow should have waited to take on Daschle.

the people are tired of Janklow they want someone new. Janklow is old, he will only stay for a couple of terms. Janklow wont get senority for SD, Stephanie will. Stephanie will be great for SD because she has the opportunity to have a long career in the house and get alot for SD unlike janklow.

It looks like Janklow may have to wait to take on Daschle.

Bush Rep:

The Dems believe in "killing" children before they are born (abortion) and the GOP believes in "killing" children after they are born (cut off food stamps, giving lip service to adoption, cut children's programs and education funds, the latter at least until GW came to power and of course the best of them all...denying the illegal alien woman the right to abortion but wanting to deny the baby US citizenship after it is born, calling it an anchor baby for no fault of its own (Anne Northrup, Jo Ann Davis, Bob Stump, Tom Tancredo and Jo Ann Emerson are leaders in both areas).

BushRep

What the crap does slavery have to do with this? You were talking about hypocrisy. There is plenty of it to go around and your party has shown of lot of it lately. But you sit here still deny the plain facts.

Also Elizabeth Dole is not a done deal. A new Garin-Hart-Yang poll out today has it

47-Dole
41-Bowles

I knew this race would tighten. Although I expected Dole to win this gives me some pause.

Seniority? Is that way Daschle and Johnson are Senators, and is that why Thune is running? Didn't seem like they were elected for seniority because they all sought or are seeking higher positions.

I have always found the Democratic view of America, as spoken by Senator Torricelli when he pulled out, most fascinating. It seems as if America is a bunch of child-beating, wife-abusing, starving, ill-educated, povery-stricken country.

No, I am against spending much more on public education as it is today. I went through that system and wouldn't do it again for all the money in the world. It is heavily biased against anyone who wants to achieve or is smart.

A Democratic Poll...not much different from the fraud perpetuated by Ed Goeas and Tarrance Group in Arkansas and elsewhere.

I have always like Tarrance polls. They are generally pretty accurate.

Public education heavily favors incompetents and people who are not...just like Steel tariffs do. Both the inner city and steel towns suffer from the same problem. The solution is not propping up public education, but reforming education, and the solution is not propping up US steel but retraining workers for more modern jobs that use latest technology. Skeptics would argue that GOP bailed out steel towns because it is heavily white and does not want to bail out inner city public schools because it happens to be black or minority...no racism is not the problem..but the GOP hypocrisy is.

Tarrance Polls...in 1998 they predicted 25 seat gain for GOP...did not happen. In 2000, on November 6 they predicted a five point win for Bush and it did not happen. You really have taken an award on this. You need to get your information straight before posting garbage.

All-white schools are just as bad as inner city schools. It is the same stupid principle that everyone has the same skills, etc.

Brighter students could learn just as much, or even more, by distance-learning. Grades 1-6 are a total waste of time and money. Children who take a longer time learning should be getting more help, but it should help that is constructive and helps, and does not treat them like total idiots.

Tarrance predicted a McGreevey victory of 10 points, and an Warner victory of five points.

That is a lot better than GYC polls. When they come out, I laugh. The candidate who pays for a GYC poll has no sense.

All white schools are just as bad as inner city schools...pretty general and ignorant statement..just like your comment on the fraud known as the Tarrance Group poll. South Dakota and North Dakota public schools match the best in the world in both math and science achievements...and so do schools in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Kansas. The math achievement test is called TIMS.

We can make similar arguments about the steel industry...brighter people could do much better if they are retrained instead of trying to protect the incompetent American steel industry. Retrained Americans have done well in the past. Subsidizing steel industry is a waste of time and money. People who need retraining should get help. All subsidies do is protect the inefficient and treats Americans like total idiots.

Aberation...Tarrance has pretty pathetic record...two good predictions out of a thousand does not an unbiased and excellent polling firm make. Overall Tarrance is as fraudulent as GYC.

Tarrance was wrong on the NJ race..you are right they predicted McGreevy's victory by 10 points...but the actual margin of victory was 16.

Excuse me buddy. I just got out of high school, and it is a waste of time. High school doesn't prepare a student adequately for college. I'm doing well because I'm a self-learner.

I could care less what your citations say. The states you mention amount to about 26 representatives, a small drop in a country with our population. Why don't you think about what comes out of your keyboard?

Our steel economy is failing because businesses have poor workers who have been poorly educated. Meanwhile, we have liberal environmentalist extremists putting on restrictions that stiffle development which would reduce pollution on their own.

McGreevey=56%
Schundler=42%

56-42=14.

Did you go to public school too?

Then fight the war with liberal environmental extremists and retrain the workforce as I have been suggesting, not steel tariffs. Stop whining about American schools...immmigrant children do well in these schools, go on to become inventors and Nobel Prize winners. They start from scratch. All most of the native born folks do is complain and bitch about everything instead of getting up their a-- and getting to work.

You know, I once went to a social sciences competition in the State Capitol in Harrisburg. There were around 30 of the best of Pennsylvania.

In the back of our beautiful State House is a large painting of Von Steuben training the troops at Valley Forge, and yet, when someone asked who the Prussian was who trained the Continental Army, the answer was a Frenchman, or something like that.

And these are the best of Pennsylvania, a largely white state.

I think we do agree though about the native born Americans who sit around, do nothing, and whine about immigrants. It is an excuse which makes me ill.

Difference between 10 and 14 is larger than 14 and 16. Perhaps you did not go to school at all.

Yes, at least you and I agree on one issue but many in your party or for that matter Democratic Pary would not agree with us on this issue of immigrants doing better than native born folks. Perhaps if they employ more foreign born folks in jobs related to steel manufacturing and export strategy US steel industry would do well...rather than imposing steel tariffs. Not many foreign born folks working as white collar professionals in the steel industry...perhaps a good old boy's network unlike aircraft, computer, pharmaceutical or for that matter even auto industries.

1. Tarrance missed by 4 points. How horrible.

2. I do think we need more manufacturing jobs in this country's economy. It would go a long way towards giving us predominance over our opposition around the world. However, I also oppose farm subsidies like the giant one for the Midwest. While I understand the motivation, it doesn't make too much sense in states which don't have much else to spend on. If the states don't want to raise the taxes to do it themselves, then tough.

Well, next week should be an interesting week. I'll be back on Tuesday night since I'm going away. Just to let everyone know, Quinnipiac should be releasing a poll of Pennsylvania sometime next week, possibly Monday or Tuesday at the earliest.

Until next week,

BushRep

I don't know BushRep, why is it obvious that some guy on a mural training Revolutionary troops is a Prussian? There were a lot more French helping the patriots than Prussians. Hell the French had more troops here than the whole Continental Army. I think the kid sounds pretty educated.

"In 1990 Ann Richards was elected Gov, while Phil Gramm won in a landslide. 41 and 43 both campaigned to defeat Richards, although they wouldn't go near Clayton Williams since he had ethical problems."

Not true. I'm a Texan, and I remember the senior President Bush campaigning with Williams very late in the race -the final weekend in fact. Williams' ethical problems didn't really become a defining issue in the race until the last month or so, with the silver bullet being the revelation that he hadn't paid income taxes in 1986. That broke just days before the election, and with the exception of Gramm's re-election and Perry's narrow defeat of Hightower for Ag Secretary, the Democratic ticket did fairly well that year. As for 43, I think he may have considered running for Gov. back then, but as manager of the Texas Rangers, he was definitely NOT much of a factor in politics here.

Interesting to note that Texas and Florida, where Lawton Chiles beat the incumbent Bob Martinez, were two of the big embarrassments for the first President Bush's midterm and his son could face the same upset this year.

My favorite thing about the Williams-Richards race (I was still in Texas, in high school, at the time) was Clayton's "Lie back and enjoy it" line. Good times.

Nothing to add on the eduction "debate." Carry on.

Go Stephanie Herseth!

It is terrible. In 2000, Tarrance missed the call by five points for the Presidential elections. How horrible! That was the difference between a huge Bush victory and a squeaker. Does not matter if it is a landslide. But, does make a difference when the difference separating the candidate is just five percent, when the actual difference was 0.5%. Five percent would have been a clear Bush victory, with 400 electoral votes. 0.5% Gore win in popular vote meant Bush needed a Florida win to become President and he got that by less than 500 votes.

Improvement in schools, more skilled immigration (not less) and retraining are all major ingredients to keeping the manufacturing jobs at home. Had it not been for the foreing manufacturers such as BMW and Subaru-Isuzu our unemployment rate would be close to 10%. And why do German corporations close plants and move operations to the US? Simple. Germany has a declining working age skilled population, but does not allow skilled foreign workers into their country unless you are 100% European origin and at least 80% German origin. Not many such folks around in the world. So, partly encouraged by US skilled immigration policies, these corporations move their operations here, thus creating jobs. That is the main reason why US does not go the way of Germany. Xenophobes and bigots such as Tom Tancredo and ex-Colorado Governor do not like my argument...so their staff has frequently called me names and hurled slurs and innuendos at me and my fellow research economists.

Have a good trip. You are always entertaining to argue with and hats off to you. You seem to know a lot more about American politics than most people your age. In Colorado they asked me whether Toriccelli was a form of noodle.

One way you can debunk the poll with Herseth in the lead is by looking at the Democratic poll that has her up by only 1!

Give it up dems. Herseth may be hot, but she's not gonna beat someone who has won four statewide elections. Did you know that Tom Dasshole himself admitted voting for Janklow for governor?

Bushrep-
I came to that conclusion about a week ago after the NJ fiasco.

On a positive note, President Bush is coming to my college (Southwest Missouri State University) next Friday to campaign for Jim Talent.

RWG-It's his long time in the governorship that has made Janklow vulnerable to Herseth. Maybe I'm wrong, but when you were first eected Governor when your opponent was 7, running for the House just seems kind of pathetic.

All Stephanie Herseth needs to do is say and show that she brings enthusiasm, new ideas, will ably represent her constituents and has a possibility of seniority in the House. She comes from a distinguished family in SD politics, with a grandfather who was governor. By contrast the dour Jankalow is a career politician just looking to stay in the public eye.

And by the way RWG is namecalling about Daschle your idea of "changing" or "elevating the tone"?

For that matter how about Dubya breaking his zero tolerance for corporate crooks pledge by campaigning for Bill Simon, who defrauded the USPS by providing 12 million $ in defective equipment? Simon's company is being sued by the USPS for fraud and yet Dubya is campaigning for someone who squandered our tax dollars to line his pockets for defective goods. For shame!

Right after I graduated from the public school system in 2000; my school and other schools in my county went to total shit! 40 kids in some classes; a near bus strike; and teachers that just don't know what they are doing. Who's to blame? Management! Our county has to have some of the dumbest school board people ever. Hell I can do better then they can. How they can misappropriate funds and get sued every other year is beyond me. The state of Florida is also to blame for not matching education funds with the population demand. It amazes me that Georgia is doing better than us and we supposedly have more capita per income.
Disgraceful!

I agree with Bushrep that self education is the way to go but the education problem is the fault of both parties. Reps go bonkers with the voucher stuff when it is more detrimental to a student because it does not account for the conditions of a school- just testing. Plus a kid who gets a private school voucher is not always guaranteed the school of choice or for that matter full funding for that institution. Dems make the mistake of listening to much to the teachers unions instead of consintrating on student need. If Mcbride is to solve the education problem in my state he'll have to go against some of what the teachers unions want.

Do we give schools more money? Depends. Obviously the more growth you have in a state the more money is needed to keep up with student needs. Flordia hasn't done this. Georgia I guess has. We also need accountability across the board. Hold teachers accountable, test students but not over test them, place accountability on school conditions, place tougher accountability on school boards, and have the state keep up with student demand.

The whole debate that American schools are bad because they're run poorly or have the wrong goals is valid, but also sounds a little too bitter to me. it's nearly impossible to create a system that fits everyone. Also, the comment about the Prussian militarist (or bemoaning whether a Kid knows that Abe Lincoln wasn't born in illinois) is exactly the kind of thing our school system doesn't need to be sweating. The facts people need to know are not the biographical details of individual lives, they're the aspects of individuals lives that really impacted everyone. And I'm sorry, if the Prussian fact is really that important, than no one will ever know all the important facts.
Sorry for the digression, main point is, money and investment are important in our society. Conservatives claim that High wages tend to attract talent, so why are teachers supposed to be magically unconcerned about financial issues? it's one of the worst paid jobs in our country for the college educated. That discourages people from becoming teachers.
Also, more funding means more teachers, more schools, more people available to run different programs. Less money means some staff need to be cut somewhere, very few schools have huge embezzlement problems. So usually the arts, music, etc tend to go, and then class sizes get big, and athletic programs disappear, all of which lead to more kids losing the part of school they enjoy most and helping to make us a dumber, fatter america.

I get offended by alll this talk that public schools are failing. I graduated from a diverse public school where 30% of the students get free or reduced lunch, while my older brother graduated from one of the most prestigious private schools in Washington, going to school with the offspring of countless dignitaries-and if you ask my parents, they won't hesitate to say I got a better education.

It's kind of interesting that the right-wing in this country has propagated this belief that even some liberals buy, that our schools are failing. Their reason is , of course, to get them privatized. It's the same argument they use on Social Security-that the system is broken, and many people have bought this false b.s.
Our schools for the most part are doing well. Most parents when asked to rate the schools their children go to give them an A or a B. SOME schools are failing-mainly grossly underfunded inner city schools. Social Security does need some MINOR adjustments, but it is certainly not failing. Yet most people will probably tell you our education system is in shambles and they will never collect Social Security(if there under 40). Both are BIG LIES. But thanks to our "liberal" media and the right-wing echo chamber people believe them.

Sad to say that both sides demagogue the issue for their own purposes. If they were as bad as they say they are, we'd be in a hell of a lot of trouble. The kids today seem pretty much as they were 20 years ago...maybe a bit more materialistic and not as naive as I was, but they sure don't seem any less educated.

Ced,

Can you send me a link on N.C. poll??

If Bowles is six ahead, and by the way I live in N.C..then your right she is toast. :)

sorry i read your post wrong Ced :)

Have you guys seen the latest Colorado poll? Allard led Strickland 52% to 43% in a KOAA-TV poll just released (after the other one that gave him just a 39% to 35% lead). What do you make of that?

Interesting.

Herseth does seem to have an edge over Janklow in SD judging by all the polls. However, Johnson also seems to be leading Thune in the Senate race. Could Janklow be saved by a split ticket effect - in other words - the Johnson-Daschle ticket is good for SD in the Senate, but the natural Republican bent of the state keeps the House seat in that column?
If the report on Smith's write in campaign in New Hampshire is accurate, I begin to think that Sunnunu is in real trouble - he certainly ought to have pulled out more of a lead than he has done up to now.

That KOAA poll is obviously crap. Watched the second debate last night, and it was reported pre-debate that something like 18% were still undecided. When you add the independant % into the koaa it makes it seems as there's only 1-2% still undecided.

IPSOS-Reid has congressional races even. Fox has the GOP ahead by two. Then pray tell me why would a GOP Writhlin Group release a poll showing the Dems ahead by two? Just does not make any sense.

The 52-43 Allard poll is nonsense. It was done by a company, Survey USA, that uses automated interviewing. There is no way to determine if the person pushing the buttons on the phone is a likely voter or not.

If Allard was really up 52-43, the campaign would be releasing it. The fact that they are not suggests that they, like everyone else polling in Colorado, are getting him in the low 40s.

Polls from Oregon and Illinois:
Portland Tribune:
Governor's Race
Kulongoski (D)-45
Mannix (R)-37
Cox (L)-5
Undecided-13

Senate Race
Smith (R)-52
Bradbury (D)-39
Other-2

CBS Poll-Illinois Governor's Race:
Blagojevich-55
Ryan-36
Skinner-2
Undecided-7

I'd say that Blagojevich will win. I think the margin should be within 10-15 points. As for Oregon, Smith looks like he'll win easily, while Kulongoski should narrowly prevail.

"And by the way RWG is namecalling about Daschle your idea of "changing" or 'elevating the tone?'"

Oh yeah, we all know how the Dems on this site NEVER namecall. Do Jim No Talent and Dum Hickles ring a bell?

"Herseth does seem to have an edge over Janklow in SD judging by all the polls. However, Johnson also seems to be leading Thune in the Senate race"

Mason-Dixon poll has Janklow up by 6. Even a Democratic poll has Janklow up by 1! And the South Dakota Senate race is a dead heat.

I love it. Dum Hickles. Haven't heard that one before.
Aren't Hickles and Dimhofe both from Oklahoma? What a loser state!

But your standard bearer Dubya -- promised to change and elevate the tone of discourse in the country. Shouldn't you emulate his example rather than using an obscenity to describe Daschle?

And as insulting as you may find Dumb Hickles or Delay a Lott Dolittle, it doesn't change the fact that the GOP says one thing and does another.

Bush is campaigning for the feckless draft dodger Saxby Chambliss who has the temerity to challenge the patriotism of Max Cleland and to allege that he was lying when he committed to defending the country.

Max volunteered for the army took a grenade and lost three limbs to save his company, won bronze and silver stars, then became the youngest State Senator in Georgia History, writing the state's accessibility laws, later heading up the VA under Carter and then becoming Secretary of State in Georgia.

What did the cowardly Chambliss do during Vietnam? He happened to have a bum knee which oh so coincidentally kept him from being drafted, but miraculously went away allowing him to become an avid runner. As the Church lady on SNL might say "How conveeeenient...."

Dubya should not be campaigning for candidates that debase American discourse the way Chambliss is by assaulting the bravery and patriotism of a great patriot like Max Cleland!

Dubya should not campaign for liars like Bill Simon, who don't even believe in doing fact checking on their opposition research to make sure that the photo he thought he had of the governor accepting a check on state property actually was what he claimed it to be. Besides Simon has defrauded the USPS of $12 million in defective equipment which he is now being sued for.

If Dubya is serious about "elevating the tone" and showing "zero tolerance to corporate evildoers," he should start by abandoning the feckless Chambliss and the hapless Simon who are inconsistent with these stated principles. But we know he won't because what Dubya says and what Dubya does are two very different things.

"The 52-43 Allard poll is nonsense."

That may or may not be, but, it, like the other poll, shows that Allard is up. The state of Colorado leans GOP and it's still an uphill climb for Strickland.

Another not so happy poll for democrats is the Zogby poll for Missouri that shows Talent over Carnahan 47% to 46%. The last one was Carnahan over Talent 48% to 40%.

To be absolutely honest, the more I watch this race, the more I believe Carnahan will lose, especially considering Talent's strong showings in previous statewide races.

The 47-46 poll was an error by BushRep. Those were the results of an August poll from Zogby on the race. BushRep himself acknowledged that error. The last Zogby poll had Carnahan up 48-40.

52-43 Allard poll is garbage. Survey USA Polls are garbage. I believe that as much as a Survey USA Poll which puts Dole ahead of Bowles by four points. She is probably ahead by 15.

Anyone who saw yesterday's Allard-Strickland debate knows that Allard did miserably. He latched on to defending one obscure vote even as Strickland cited Allard's votes to abolish the Department of Ed, to oppose Family and Medical Leave. Allard did not rebut any of the other votes and one voter on their panel indicated she had decided that since he would not take responsibility for and defend his voting record, she was voting for Strickland.

Allard is inarticulate and devoid of policy ideas. He lacks answers for today's problems and could not even counterattack within the alloted time.

Do you believe any poll that says that Dole is ahead by only four in NC? MO poll showing Carnahan and Talent at 48-48 is garbage as well. As is the Allard-Strickland Poll.

Wait till Zogby releases the next round by this time tomorrow.

While the North Carolina Senate race undoubtably has tightened, I doubt that it is a 4 point race. I think Elizabeth Dole will win by around 8 points.

I do not know whether the race has tightened...the jury is out at least until tomorrow.

Don't put too much stock in the Zogby polls. He's good nationally, but his track record on state polls is not as good. I think Mason-Dixon has a better track record, and is a more reliable poll.

Paleo:

Very true. However, Mason-Dixon has abdicated its responsibility. Does not poll in Arkansas anymore...and until recently, the vacuum was filled by fradusters and party pollsters such as Goeas and Lake.

In regards to SC Senate race, Robert Redford came down there today and raised 400,000 for Sanders, and there Crossfire debate is tomorrow. It will be interesting to see who stays on message more tomorrow, and sets the tone for the final 3 weeks.
The Democrats need to forget about any hope for North Carolina and Tennessee, this is what happens when the DLC picks pathetic candidates like Clement and Bowles.
In challenging Rep seats the DSCC should really focus $ on OR, CO, SC, and NH, as the TV money is cheap in these four states compared to TX. Yet, after all the DSCC is not known for being that intelligent...

Okay, this is only slightly related to what is posted above, but I gots a question...

All of you people keep saying that the Republicans are the party of the rich. If that's true, how come Hollywood actors who makes millions of dollars a film support Democrats, hmm???? And you say we are the party of rich elites...such hypocrisy!

How do you guys think the Maryland sniper tragedy will play out in November? I'm thinking it wont do much because if the Dems try to play it up the Repubs will convict them of trying to use this tragedy to breath new life into the "gun/second amendment" issue. On the other hand if it turns out that he bought his weapon or weapons (Even those he hasn't used) at a Gun show or through some other loophole the NRA has kept open....

John Jimenez

Given the effect gun violence has had on her life, I think Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is well-positioned to make gun control an issue in Maryland. The Republicans will claim she's taking advantage of the recent tragedies, but if she's careful, she should be able to use this issue against Ehrlich without a backlash.

Hollywood actors support Republicans too. Witness Tom Selleck, Arnold Schwartzenegger, Bruce Willis, Bo Derek and Kelsey Grammer just to name a few. Noone has the monopoly on movie stars.

"However, Mason-Dixon has abdicated its responsibility." - G.C. Raj

Last I checked Mason-Dixon was not a non-profit organization. You don't really expect them to conduct polls gratis, if no one hires them, do you?

"Hollywood actors support Republicans too. Witness Tom Selleck, Arnold Schwartzenegger, Bruce Willis, Bo Derek and Kelsey Grammer just to name a few. Noone has the monopoly on movie stars."

Kelsey Grammer is Republican? I didn't know that...cool. And yes, the Democrats do have a monopoly on movie stars...Jack Nicholson, Mary Steenburgen, Redford, Barbara Streisand, Rosie O'Donnell, Alec Baldwin (he never left!), Whoopi Goldberg, Steven Spielberg Martin Sheen, Rob Lowe, Tim Robbins...I'm sure I could think of more if I sat here long enough. Anyway, the stars you listed are just the exception to the rule.

The fact is, Hollywood or no Hollywood, that 73% of millionaires are Republican and 27% are Democrats.

The big difference is, most wealthy Hollywood stars weren't born rich, so they don't see their money as entitlement the way so many Republican millionaires do. By the way, howcome we always get stories about the tough road conservatives have to hoe in Hollywood, but no one ever cries over the fate of liberals on Wall Street?

Over the many years I've seen this non-issue discussed, it's always been my impression that, with a few exceptions, the best actors (Nicholson/Hoffman/Streep/Sarandon ad infinitum) tend to be Dems, and the money-making hacks (Willis/Schwarzenegger/Heston) go GOP.

"Damn, dirty ape!"

Now, come on, if that's not Academy Award material I don't know what is. ;)

", but no one ever cries over the fate of liberals on Wall Street?"

I'm not so sure. Martha Stewart is a big time emocrat and contributer to the party and she has some support. I'm by no means a big fan of her but what they are doing to her is wrong. I mean she made- what $48,000 compared to Ken Lay, and fastow and all of the others. I think its just a play on the part of the REpubs to say look the Dems are in it too and she was a convenient target because of her too squeky clean image.

John Jimenez

"but no one ever cries over the fate of liberals on Wall Street?"

You wanna whine about it? Go ahead!

"the best actors tend to be Dems"

Yeah like Rosie O'Donnell and Alec Baldwin LOL.

"The fact is, Hollywood or no Hollywood, that 73% of millionaires are Republican and 27% are Democrats."

Not just Hollywood. Trial lawyers are another group of rich Democrats.