Hauser is perhaps on the mark. However, right now, I would say, +4 in the House, +1 in the Senate and +7 governorships, with one deadlocked and going to the courts (Florida, of course!) based on polls today. However, there are still a lot of undecideds and during the last week they can decisively swing the elections one way or the other, as it happened in 1986.

I tend to be somewhat more optimistic:
+2-+3 in the Senate

Explanation: Dems are vulnerable in 3-4 states maximum. In NJ the situation is fast improving as Forrester is running into some bad news cycles of his own and Lautenberg begins to articulate the policy distinctions between himself and his opponent. I only expect the Dems to lose one of the three of Minnesota, South Dakota and Missouri. Carnahan, with the least experience and a less experienced team than Johnson's is far more vulnerable, than Johnson and Wellstone who have both endured bruising battles against the odds.

Dem pickups are probable in Arkansas, likely in Colorado and/or New Hampshire, and possible in Texas or North Carolina.

+7 for the Dems is a reasonable expectation. I expect Herseth over Jankalow, Holden over Gekas, Phelps over Shimkus, Thomas over Leach, Herrera over Porter, Van Hollen over Morella, Kelley over McCotter, Long over Chocola, and Hutchinson over Nussle. GOP gains in Michigan and PA will be less than expected and offset by Dem gains in GA and NC. In fact, in PA Wofford over Gerlach is another possible unexpected hold of a Democratic seat.

One final note is that the leaked memo on Hispanic affairs from the White House denouncing dissenters from the President who were Hispanic could mobilize these voters to turn out against the GOP in Texas. This could pose a threat to Hensnarling and Bonilla, boosting Chapman and Cuellar respectively.

Also, the White House memo's denunciation of Byrd may adversely impact Capito's prospects in W Va although that is still a longshot for the Dems.

Sebelius is a toss-up in Kansas. I missed that when I read it over at the Note. That race is a snoozer--Shallenburger can't get half of the state Republican establishment to support him.

More bad press for Jeb

http://www.miami.com/mld/miami/news/politics/4284824.htm

anybody have a link for the text of that memo? I'd like to read it and forward it on to some people who think Republicans like Hispanics (other than their yard people, of course).

I'll just throw in my .02 FWIW :) .

I think the situation is much the way it has always been. The 3 most vulnerable Dems are still in MO, SD, and MN, in order from most vulnerable (I'm worried about Carnahan and Johnson the most). AR looks good for the Dems, and less likely but still looking very possible are CO and NH. Other lesser possibilities are TX, SC, maybe OR. You have to think the Dems will pick off 1 or 2 from the last five I listed. Does anyone think Lautenberg has it put away? I'm not sure it is in the bag, but it's looking good, especially after Forrester's past writings about the assault weapons ban were revealed.

The Dems will definitely gain in the Gov. races, and Jeb and maybe Perry are vulnerable.

I don't follow the House closely, that's why I come here :), among other reasons. But I have to think the historical trends favor the Dems., even though they may not net enough to gain control of the House.

Who here thinks there may be a surge one way or the other these last few weeks?

Anyone have any ideas how much McBride would have to actually win by to have a chance of defeating Jeb (taking into account the problems they usually have counting votes there)?

I would say that, given how much Broward and Dade have gotten their act together, McBride probably has to win by at least 25,000. I say that because, given 4 million votes, a margin of less than 20,000 will trigger an automatic recount, which will give Bush and the Republican elections commissioners the opportunity to make mischief. The other 5,000 is, in my view, roughly the net number of votes for McBride that will go down the crapper.