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'My biggest problem is the unknown Sanchez factor,' Mr. Bonilla acknowledges. If Mr. Sanchez's candidacy increases turnout, Mr. Cuellar may be able to get enough votes to win." [Wall Street Journal, 10/22/02] With early voting turnout above Presidential voting-year levels in S. Texas County's that "unknown factor" is becoming more known.

In the AZ 1st, more on the "big-city" campaign tactics are backfiring spin, in the rural CD.

Bush is coming into Savannah GA on Saturday, trying to push Chambliss and Burns over the top; Walker is probably the worst candidate that the Democrats have nominated this cycle, in terms of mis-steps. He may even be able to lose a CD that is 42% African-American., to a flat-taxer! The Augusta Chronicle thinks so. Walker leads in cash, and that might make the difference. CQ rankings have moved the 12th to no clear favorite, with the 11th leaning Democratic, and the 3rd likely Democratic. But the mis-steps may have happened early enough for Walker to turn it around; this is one that will turn on turnout. The GOP focus on destroying Walker is second only to the amount of national press they've flurried on their chances in the CD.

Sabato has moved the CO 7th CD back into the Democratic column; with guns, or all things in Colorado, becoming the issue that's dragging down Beauprez in the contest. He has also given up on Grucci in the NY 1st, moving it to Democratic takeover.

Courtney has not been able to close the gap with Simmons. Chances look equally dim for Maloney. CT will be the one bright spot for the GOP in the Northeast (did you know Rove thinks Bush can take CT in '04, seriously).... hey Joe, come on! The Republicans may win the NH CD's and the Governorships in NH, but Shaheen has the momentum in the Senator race. In MD, unless Ehrlich opens up a 5% lead here in the closing days, the undecided Democrats, mostly women, are probably going to break to Townsend; same with the Democrats being favored in the two MD CD's that are competitive.

NPR features the Latino vote in the New Mexico elections, with the focus on the Democratic candidates Smith in the 2nd battling for the open Republican-held seat in a tie against Pearce; and Romero, the Democrat running against the GOP incumbent Wilson in the Albq-based 1st CD.

New Mexico, along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, could turnout to be the key states that hand the Democrats a majority in the House. In all three Governor races, it's going to be a ~15% blowout. Sanchez will win handily in the 1st CD, and might pull Romero over; as will Granholm in the Oakland County, carrying significant parts of the 9th and 11th CD's, where Fink and Kelley can win; and Rendell will win in the Philly suburb 6th CD where Wofford is running. Then there's Iowa, where blowouts by Harkin and Vilsack could be tagged along by three Democrats ousting three incumbent Republicans. The Democrats have strong candidates in all seven of those statewide Democratic blowouts, and these are the type of scenarios to look for upsetting the "GOP keeps the House" hypothesis. ABC profiles five House contests that could flip the power.

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