Back to MyDD Weblog

Moneyline, on control of the House last week:

DOBBS: Let's turn to the basic issue, gentlemen. And I'll start again with you if I may, Ron. Will the Republicans control the House after this election?

FAUCHEAUX: Well, our numbers show that they have a lead in enough districts to control it right now. We have Republicans ahead in 225 districts. They now hold 223 districts. They need 218 to have a majority. But at the same time, they are at risk in 30 of those seats. So if there is any kind a Democratic turnout advantage going into the last few days of election, it could tighten it up. But as it stands now, I would bet on the Republicans maintaining control of the House.

DOBBS: Who are you betting on -- Chuck.

TODD: Lou, for people like us, October is the cruelest month. You go through this angst all time. You sit there, you're like, well, you know, everyone of these races is 45-40 one way or the other. And so it's all about this turning out this last-minute base.

In 1986, all of these races were very close. And all of them went 51-49 to the Democrats. And the Democrats ended up looking like they had a huge night when it was really just a swing of about 3,000 voters here, 3,000 voters there. And so that's what makes it so hard. If you go race by race, there's no way the Republicans should lose the House.

But if you start talking about some turnout wave, if turnout inches up in states like Iowa, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Michigan in the Democrats' favor, there's enough seats just in those states for them to pick up the House.

Getting the vote out is what it's all about in the remaining ~100 hours running up to the election, Last-Minute Efforts Shift From Talking to Walking. Voter turnout, however, is expected to be low these midterm elections, said Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate.

Turnout in 1998 was 35.3 percent of the voting age population, he said, the lowest turnout since 1942. "There's nothing in the figures on voter registration, primary turnout or voter interest in the polls we have seen so far that suggests this will be an election where turnout will be higher."

But it depends on where you look. Texas and Iowa, for instance, are showing higher than average early voting levels in Democratic areas of the state. In Georgia, new voting technology will mean an extra ~100k votes, diproportionately black, that were discarded in 2000, will be counted this time around. Cox, the GA SoS, expects "54 percent of registered voters will go to the polls on Tuesday; the previous record was the 1990 general election, when turnout was 52.3. About 47 percent voted in the 1998 general election, the last time the state had a governor's race."

Towery, on IA, has wondered if this might protend to a Republican blowout in Georgia, but he's not underestimating the African-American vote in Georgia-- especially given the extra ~60k votes that will be counted this time, thanks to the Democratic Trifecta in Georgia under Barnes.

Speaking of IA, Republicans are on overtime trashing Towery, who's was by far the most accurate in the GA primary's, polling correctly the Linder by double-digit's over Barr, and Majette over McKinney, elections. Towery's article is a must-read, here are some excerpts:

The cumulative IA tracking poll, which has a margin of error of less than 3 percent, shows Bush leading with 46 percent, McBride with 44 percent, with 10 percent either undecided or "other."

First, for the unprecedented number of McBride supporters who sent sometimes expletive-filled e-mails claiming my comments about the candidates were unfair to McBride, let me help to put your minds at rest: Gov. Bush's campaign had an even nastier reaction....

But political races have a tendency to tighten in the final days. And the Democrat’s resolve to defeat Jeb Bush reminds me of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's 1992 GOP primary in Georgia. His pollsters told him he was 15 points ahead, only to find a sea of Democrats flooding into Georgia's open primary and bringing Gingrich's no-name opponent within one percentage point of beating him.

Back to MyDD Weblog