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The roughest battle for a House seat is going on in New Jersey, in the 5th CD.

Democrat Anne Sumers, an ophthalmologist from wealthy Upper Saddle River is a former Roukema supporter who switched parties earlier this year and ran unopposed in the primary. Garrett is from the less populated, more conservative western part of the 5th District. Sumers as an 18-year resident of the more populated Bergen County has a real shot here.

The staunch conservative Garrett vs the moderate turn-coat Sumers, that's the subplot; it's more like a Republican primary than a general election, but that's what the GOP has done in many Republican-leaning CD's this year-- nominated ideologically pure Republicans, opening the center to a socially moderate, fiscally conservative Democrat, like Sumers. The balance of this vote will be determined by how large a margin Sumers can beat Garrett by in Bergen County.

Much has been made of the fact that Republicans always win here, and that's noted. Still, we are looking at a region with voter-shift is occurring-- where the margin has narrowed to within 5 percent. This is not a strong "Republican district" we are looking at here. It's got an Independent swing to it, and, along with all of NJ, the CD has been trending Democratic:

From NJ: Three-fifths of its population is clustered in Bergen; to the west, little subdivisions set amid the lakes of western Passaic County are filling up with young families; farther west are once rural, now more or less suburban Sussex and Warren counties. Politically, this area has long been solidly Republican, although like all of New Jersey it moved toward Democrats in the 1990s; it was one of the state's two districts carried by Bob Dole in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000.

1996 Presidential Vote
Dole (R) 127,286 (47%)
Clinton (D) 115,060 (42%)
Perot (I) 23,642 (9%)

2000 Presidential Vote
Bush (R) 150,686 (51%)
Gore (D) 134,051 (45%)
Nader (G) 9,464 (3%)

With Lautenberg now up by double-digits over Forrester, there is little for the NJ Republicans to get excited about, and a big reason, given the Republicans NRA positions, for the moderate Republicans to vote centrist Democratic. In 1998, Rush Holt, a political neophyte, ran and won in what was considered a solid moderate Republican district, ousting the conservative incumbent Mike Pappas. Garrett's not even the incumbent, and is being outspent by Sumers.

Back in May, I stated 4 things that Sumers would have to do to win:

The first would be having more money than Garrett. The second would be having Roukema stay out of the race, not necessarily neutral, but not active in ads and so forth. And thirdly, if she can get those two, is to be aggressive early in shaping Garrett as an extreme candidate. Just like McGreevey did to Schundler after he won the primary. Hit them quick and hit them hard. Define this guy in his extreme box, and then just hammer it home. Fourth, GOTV. Just like most places, participation is way way down.

Bergen County, which has some of the wealthiest pockets of voters in the nation, has clearly been trending Democratic. In terms of financial backing, Sumers has outraised Garrett within the CD, spending five times more than Garrett between July 1 and Sept. 30; without the NRCC intervention of funding, Garrett would be toast. Sumers no only has more cash, she's run ads with what amounts to a near-endorsement by Roukema-- whom has zinged Garrett on a couple of occasions.

The sniper issue gave Sumers the opening for gun control to become the campaigns main attack issue of Garrett's extremism. Here's the TV ad that's playing right now: "Scott Garrett shouldn't be blamed for the sniper, but Garrett's positions are the problem.'' Another late development was some out-of-state sign-stealers from Sumers campaign that made the news.

As for GOTV, Sumers will need nearly 60% of the vote in Bergen County to offset Garrett's lead in the rural areas of the CD. Helping toward that effort, the control of Bergen County's Freeholder Board is up in the air; like every other contest in the County, it's a brawl, with Democrats trying to takeover the majority at the same time local conservatives are attempting to takeover the CD representation; which, as Judis notes in the spring, moderate Republicans vote Democratic:

From TNR: In 1988 it went for the elder George Bush over Michael Dukakis 58 percent to 41 percent; in 2000 Al Gore defeated the younger Bush there 55 percent to 42 percent. Likewise, in 1993 and 1997, Bergen County voted for moderate Republican Governor Christine Todd Whitman, but in 2001 it went for McGreevey against conservative Brett Schundler. And while moderate Republican Representative Marge Roukema--60 percent of whose district lies in Bergen County--managed to weather the pro-Democrat tilt (winning reelection by 65 percent to 30 percent in 2000), her successor may not be so lucky.

You can see from the CD trends further above, and these Bergen county trends, that it probably right now has about a 4% generic lean toward Republicans over Democrats; which, with the current trend, will evaporate within the decade. The contest between Sumers and Garrett is just to see if the trend can be stepped forward a couple of cycles.

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