MyDD: Indiana House

Indiana House

For the first general election since 1978, there is no race for president, U.S. Senate or governor in Indiana. There's been little interest and low turnout is expected across the state. There are three contests to watch: the NW 2nd, the Indy-based 7th, and the SW 8th. Redistricting has shuffled the districts quite a bit, so even the incumbents are having to campaign in new territories-- a potential opening for challengers.

Jeff Cooper has a summary up on the Indiana House contests, here's some more:

The 2nd is a toss-up for an open Democratic-held seat. Early polls had Thompson Long (D) ahead, then Chocola (R) took a strong lead, and in the final poll Chocola leads by a 49-46 margin. Helping Thompson Long here is the ~10% gender gap, and the fact that a majority of the undecided voters are women. Bush's multi-visits have boosted Chocola.

As with all the close contests, the NRCC & DSCC have been pumping out negative attack-ads, which have cut both ways; Long, similar to Johnson in SD and Herrera in NV, has switched to only running positive ads.

The 8th leans Republican but has been showing signs of becoming a toss-up. In September, GYH (D) released a poll showing Hostettler currently leads Hartke by 45% to 36% in the initial trial heat, with 19% of voters undecided. Hostetller has even fumbled his large cash lead, by enflaming the breast cancer issue in TV ads, which has become his achilles heel this election.

About a week ago, there was some shuffling going on picked up by the local press, 8th District race called 'squirrely' this year; then Democrats started asking is Hartke in Front?. Probably close, so he's now getting national funding, and help for Bayh.

The 7th, an Indianapolis-based CD, has a strong Democratic tilt which was weakened a bit during redistricting. McVey has been getting touted all year, and is finally getting the funds to make the contest competitive. A few Indiana-based polls with Republican leaning demographics have been released showing Carsen (D) with only a 1-4% lead. Another poll done at the same time put McVey at 37 percent and Carson with 46 percent of the vote. Cooper takes an in-depth look at how this race has been slipping away from Carson.

Both parties need the 2nd, but it's just the first of many toss-ups in the evening. Watch the margins in the 7th and 8th, as they should be about even in their partisan advantage for the GOP and Dem, respectively. A 2 out of 3 here by either party, and we go to the next state. A sweep of 3 by one party means the other party is striking out for a long night.

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JB Armstrong on Nov 5 @ 1:37 AM | TrackBack