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This Way or That

Gallup is polling (Oct. 31-Nov. 3, 2002) that the latest shift over the past week is toward Republicans, in a big way too:

Two weeks ago, Democrats led among likely voters by three points, 49% to 46%, but the latest poll shows Republicans leading by six points, 51% to 45% -- a nine-point swing in the lead. The six-point Republican lead among likely voters is close to what the last CNN/USA Today/Gallup pre-election poll showed in 1994, when Republicans led 51% to 44% and went on to win 230 seats.

Among registered voters, Democrats still lead by 5 percent. I have one deep doubt here, and that's their treatment of the "likely voter" being Republican. Afterall, the whole historical point of the mid-term cycle, where the party in Presidential power loses seats, is that the the voters of the party out of power have more reason to vote.

Gallup's likely voter numbers are based on an assumed national turnout of 35% of all Americans. Given this overall turnout level, Gallup calculates that the turnout rate among Republicans will be about 43%, among independents 26%, and among Democrats 36%. These rates are almost identical to the figures found in Gallup's 1998 final midterm election poll, which showed a turnout rate of 43% among Republicans, 27% among independents, and 36% among Democrats. In 1994, turnout was higher among all three groups (49% Republican, 34% independent, and 40% Democrat).

So, why would Gallup use a turnout rate of 7% greater Republican, which would mirror Republican turnout in '94 and '98, when a Democrat was President the "anger at President Clinton-driven" turnout; instead of, say '90, '86, or '82 (page 16, pdf), when a Republican was President?

According to the Gallup poll, Republicans will vote for their party's candidates in this year's elections by 93% to 6%, while Democrats will vote for their party's candidates by virtually the same margin, 92% to 5%. Independents show a slight preference for Democrats, 46% to 43%.

If the turnout rates were the same among all three groups, Democrats would enjoy a slight edge in the national vote for Congress, given their advantage among independents.

That would mirror what Zogby found of likely voters nationwide between Oct. 26-29; and IPSO-Cook, between and October 25 and 31, 2002, in generic polling:

In the final Zogby America Poll before the November 5th elections, 51% of likely voters nationwide say they will vote Democratic in the upcoming Congressional elections, and 49% say they will vote for a Republican candidate; Congressional party control preference is 45% Democrats, 44% Republicans among likely voters.

Gallup also (probably due to their Republican-leaning sample of likely voters) shows a vastly different Senate outcome than does the Zogby Senate polling.

What it comes down to is this, Gallup says, More Republicans than Democrats say they're more enthusiastic about voting than they were in the last off-year election in 1998.

However, what if the turnout among Democrats was actually higher than that of Republicans? Gallup and the Republican 1990's congressional advantage in House elections (pdf) aside, history says it will be (Symposium on Mid-Term Elections).

Let's see what IPSO-Cook comes out with today, and what Zogby's final numbers say late Monday night.

The Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll final pre-election results will be released on November 4, based on polls conducted Oct 28-31 and Nov 1-3. Zogby International is conducting one more round of its 2002 Election Tracking that covers Zogby fieldwork conducted Saturday (Nov 2) - Monday (Nov 4).

If their generic congressional and Senate polling shows a trend alongside the Gallup polling, conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 3, 2002, then the Republicans might be pulling a hat-trick from out of the Democrats attending their own funeral. Is that what Wellstone's death, and Mondale's resurgence, has wrought?

The contention here is that the 2002 partisan turnout will mirror the 1980's not the 1990's. The 2001 elections, that produced a Democratic Wave of Victories protend this result. So did the record-breaking 2002 spring primary turnout in Texas for Democrats and just recently in Florida, and so does the early voting trend that I've been watching. Since Bush become President, Democrats have been voting in high fashion; Republicans, meanwhile, have been all poll and no vote.

On a different note. Imagine my surprise yesterday upon biking down the road to the beach and seeing a car from Georgia with "Walker County" plates. Nice car too-- that made a left turn.

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