Among current takes, the Jewish News, Israeli parties stake out ground, gives a rundown on the movements of the parties coming into the elections; with the Ha'aretz saying their new poll puts the right-wing-religious bloc firmly in driving seat (analysis here):
That would be quite a pick-up for the Likud, if the voting remains like this. The breakdown of the Members of the Fifteenth Knesset makes a national coalition government a necessity to achieve the majority, which won't change with the next election, but Likud will be in a much stronger postion, but who will they form a coalition with is a major question? Against the specter of having to form a Gov't with the further rightwing parties, J-Report thinks it will have to be with Mitzna:
But what Mitzna has to consider is the morning after the election. Can Labor’s new leader really allow Sharon to be dependent on the parties of Effi Eitam, Avigdor Lieberman and Benny Elon (the NRP, Yisrael Beitenu and Moledet, respectively) all of whom advocate the transfer of Palestinians over the border? Partners like that could force the prime minister into adopting policies that would turn Israel into an international pariah.
People want an alternative and want a counterbalance to Sharon -- who may be closer to the center than Netanyahu, but still has demonstrated that he knows the uses of force, and not diplomacy.
It is a role Mitzna may be forced to play.
The Jerusalem Report has a couple of other articles, Blessings & Bombs, and Choices, that revolve around whether the Likud or Labor Party would benefit from continued suicide bombings coming up on the election, with some very warped quotes. Their analysis amounts to a paralysis that cannot envision change occurring. Asia Times also looks at how the continued bombings might effect the vote:
Labor challenger Amram Mitzna - who argues that a peace process, not military might, is the only long-term answer - has forced the Palestinian National Authority to deviate from its declared policy of not intervening in Israeli domestic politics.
For the first time, Palestinian officials are openly urging Israelis to vote for Mitzna if they want peace and security. In an unprecedented move, Palestinian newspapers are full of paid advertisements calling for an end to attacks inside Israel in order to help Mitzna and his Labor Party.
Mitzna has said he has no hand in the developments, which Sharon is sure to try and make reactionary exploits from the maneuver, which, full circle, the J-Report says is exactly what Palestine is trying to do-- assure Sharon's re-election... whatever, a rather twisted contemplation to begin with becomes totally meaningless.
The next report will turn to some more positive takes on Mitzna's chances at pulling off an upset.
Hi, JB. From the looks of the Ha'aretz poll, it seems that the main religious party in Israel, Shas, will actually receive a devastating blow in the upcoming elections, losing more than half its seats. It also appears that two other smaller religious parties, Agudat Yisrael and the NRP will stay roughly the same. At the same time, the firmly secularist (and
anti-religious) Shinui party will more than double its seats. So it strikes me as inaccurate to say that the "right-wing-religious bloc" will be in the driver's seat after election day. The right-wing (in the form of Likud), yes, but not, I think, the religious groups.
My personal feeling, btw, is that a big Likud win could provide Sharon (who has endorsed an eventual Palestinian state) with a "Nixon-goes-to-China" mandate to make a final, true peace that no one in Labor ever could have. At least, that's what I'm hoping for.
Posted by: Dave on December 5, 2002 08:04 PMYes, the Shas looks like it's been losing support to Likud, while the Labor splinters into the Shinui-- an interesting trend. The "Nixon-goes-to-China"
theme is something I have pondered, and I'm glad to see you bring it up; it's likely that Likud will still need Labor (because Shas will be too small, and Shinui not an option) for a majority Gov't. I've seen other polls of the smaller religious parties (who have formed some sort of coalition under Lieberman) as getting more seats, possibly about 10. But Sharon is anethema to join them. I think that Mitzna will make the two-state the qualification for such a Gov't.
Thanks for writing back. I'm not sure why you say Shinui is not a possible coalition partner for Sharon, though. I believe I've read elsewhere that they could be a partner. They've taken a principled stand (agree or disagree with it) not to join any government in which a religious party is a member, and they've lived up to it. But if NRP, UTJ and Shas are all not members of the next coalition, then there'd be nothing to stop Tommy Lapid from joining up with Sharon. (I also think it would be hard for Sharon to ignore the party with the third-most seats in parliament.)
I do think Likud will still need Labor, but if the centerpiece of Sharon's agenda is a peace accord with the Palestinians, then the Israeli left will have no choice but to join him. (Just like Bill Clinton frustrated the Republicans by out-Republicaning them.) Not to mention the fact that the Israeli public WANTS a national unity coalition. Add in Sharansky's party and some other centrist stragglers (Meridor, etc.) and you could be talking a very solid 80-seat coalition. (Plus Meretz would surely have to vote for any peace deal.)
That said, I am not so sure how well Shinui will really do. I think there's a lot of confusion regarding the return to the single ballot - in other words, people still think they can split their ticket for PM and party, which they no longer can do. Ultimately, that favors Likud and Labor, as it always did. It might hurt Shas even more than current polls say. But I actually think all of this would be good for Sharon. (As a onetime pro-Oslo Labor supporter, I never imagined myself hoping for something like this!) The more seats Likud has and the weaker all of the other parties are, the better, I think, are the prospects for peace.
Hopefully the results of January 28th will be more to my liking than those of Nov. 5th!
Posted by: Dave on December 5, 2002 08:05 PMSharon has put out a deal:
"Mr Sharon said the Palestinian state will not be permitted an army, Israel will control its borders and airspace, and its foreign policy would effectively be open to Israeli veto.
"The Palestinian state will be demilitarised. It will be able to have police with light weapons," he said.
The prime minister sought to head off accusations that his government wants to turn an independent Palestine into a patchwork quilt reminiscent of apartheid South Africa, by saying a final deal would allow Palestinians to move freely in the new state without submitting to Israeli checkpoints."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,2763,854953,00.html
This will not work. It's likely to lead, if it was implemented, to campus-based boycotts of Israel.
But... it's a starting point, which is good.
Posted by: MyDD on December 5, 2002 08:15 PMDave,
I was putting too much into J-Reports statement:
"Shinui’s demands on religious issues as a precondition for joining the coalition would probably be impossible for Sharon to accept, if he also wants the Orthodox as his partners."
But I think that Shinui would not likely be enough to push the Likud over the top (will probably still need Labor).
Posted by: MyDD on December 5, 2002 08:18 PMI agree Sharon also still needs Labor, but a Likud-Labor-Shinui coalition would, I think, be a LOT more flexible than any that included the religious parties.
As for Sharon's "plan," I consider it a "placeholder". In the US, no politician would offer a plan to, say, raise taxes two months before an election. He or she would do what NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg did: wait until after November to talk about raising taxes.
Sharon, since he doesn't have the luxury of ignoring the peace issue entirely, is doing the next best thing: sticking a half-hearted plan out there which probably won't alienate most of his base on the right and which signals his "willingness to make a deal" to possible supporters in the center & and on the left.
Posted by: David on December 6, 2002 05:17 AM