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Newly-elected Alexander, from the LA 5th CD will probably join the Democratic Blue Dogs, but this is a faction on the wane. In The Democratic House Minority, it was covered how unlikely it would be (based on the final seat by seat margins of victory) for the Democrats to takeover the House this decade, after failing so badly in the 2002 mid-terms; that, in all likelihood, a status quo of the current numbers would be the result for the remainder of this decade.

Here's something that could turn the equation toward an increased Republican Majority, a session to redistrict Texas would likely mean the end for endanger up to six Texan Democrats, mostly Blue Dogs:

Even if a redistricting bill wins a majority in the House, it could be difficult to get the two-thirds vote necessary to get it considered in the Senate. If that two-thirds rule isn't changed, it would take two Democrats to reach the 21 votes needed -- assuming all 19 Republicans support debating the idea. Bills approved for debate usually get the simple majority of votes needed to pass.

Sen. Eddie Lucio, D-Brownsville, who has lusted for a congressional seat, said he would support a redistricting effort if it would create a seat in South Texas -- presumably for himself.

But even if another Democrat went along, Sen. Bill Ratliff, R-Mount Pleasant, says getting two-thirds would be "extraordinarily difficult. You're going to have to get someone to draw this, and then you've got to get 19 Republicans who like it, too, and that's not likely to happen," Ratliff said. "I'm not sure you could get all the Republican delegation in Congress to like it, much less 19 Republican senators." Ratliff says he'll reserve judgment, but adds that "we have enough problems this session without getting into that one."

Wentworth, who chaired the Senate Redistricting Committee in 2001, said, "I probably would vote against bringing it up. I don't think it's a good idea, frankly, to be saying to the voters that `you didn't elect the congressmen we wanted you to, so we're going to change the lines.' "

Democrats say that although the 17 Democrats won re-election, the party's biggest statewide vote-getter, lieutenant governor candidate John Sharp, won a majority in only 12 congressional districts. That, they said, shows that 20 of the 32 districts already lean Republican.

But the Republicans may try to redistrict anyway, unless the new Senate and House leaders -- Lt. Gov.-elect David Dewhurst and presumed new speaker Tom Craddick -- decide a budget shortfall and an insurance crisis are too important to allow them to be clouded by partisan battles.

In Pennsylvania, the legislature must submit a re-map of the state's CD's in January, 2003. The Judges seem inclined to reject the map; if they are legally able to do this, it'd mean that Gov. Rendell would have to sign off on a new re-map, or the courts would draw new CD's for PA, probably ensuring a 2-3 seat gain for the Democrats.

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