As I've expressed on other threads, there's usually about a 20-point difference in any given poll between Bush's approval rating and his "re-elect number" (percent saying they would "definitely" or "probably" vote for him in the 2004 election). This observation has so far been based on national polls, where Bush's approval rating in many polls has tended to be in the low-mid 60s and his re-elect numbers in the low-mid 40s (see archives of both kinds of polls at http://www.pollingreport.com ). Now that Bush's national approval rating appears to be slipping into the mid-50s (in a couple polls at least), I've been curious whether his re-elect number has also been slipping, so as to preserve the 20-point difference in the two types of polling question. It's possible, after all, that the slippage in the approval rating could be entirely among people who were never planning to vote for Bush. To my knowledge, the two national polls with Bush approval ratings in the 50s (Time-CNN and American Research Group) did not provide accompanying re-elect numbers. However, a mid-December poll of New York State by Marist College provides the necessary information for that state, at least. Bush's approval rating in NYS is 57%, but his re-elect number (using the "definitely" wording) was only 36% (with 40% saying they would definitely vote against Bush). The Marist Poll is not completely good news for the Democrats, as it suggests Sen. Schumer would be routed by Rudy Giuliani, but at the presidential level it looks good. If, as this poll seems to suggest, New York looks pretty safely Democratic in the next presidential election (assuming the usual pattern of undecideds breaking for a challenger), then the Democratic candidate can concentrate from the beginning on the swing states. The Marist Poll is available at:

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/nyspolls/021217PZ.htm

If unemployment is over 6% next year, Bush will be in very serious trouble. This is going to be a referendum on Buhs, not on Pelosi, Dean or Graham.

I'm betting unemployment will be over 6% next year. Boeing is getting ready to lay off another 10,000 or so workers, and the productivity gains the administration keeps crowing about translate, in an era of flat market demand and tepid consumer spending into fewer people needed and more layoffs.

Hello, Bush II.

A mile wide and an inch deep-and it's getting a lot thinner.

Is Giuliani going to run?

I think part of the Bush's relatively high approval ratings in New York stem from Jewish voters and the war on terrorism.

All I can say is YEAH!!! I hope Bush keeps it up, he's really making a lot of college age guys, including myself really mad with talk of war and a draft.

Funny to hear Bush talk about a draft, since he is a deserter:
http://www.awolbush.com
Funny to hear Bush talk about regime change, since the elections were probably rigged:
http://www.blackboxvoting.com
Funny to hear Bush talk about the economy, basically he wants to re-inflate the stock market bubble:
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v25/n03/bren01_.html

The US is turning into one big joke, with a punchline delivered by cruise missiles and marines.

Why is that Republican Presidential candidates always carry those ignorant incest-as-a-way-of-life states like Mississippi. I guess it's these same folk like in the movie "Deliverance" that sent Trent Lott to the Senate. I swear, what is the average I.Q. in Mississippi and other such gun toting, Christian Coalition, Death Penalty, areas?

Face it folks the fake war is over and there are not weapons of mass distraction except for one appointed president landing on an aircraft carrier as a photo op. I wonder when the minority props will appear again, oh that's next year at the Republican Convention. Folks...convicted felon Bush already stole one presidential election, don't let him coast into 2004 thinking he's to be taken seriously.