Evan Bayh is a democrat in name only. Its not really all that great having him in the senate. If the dems chose a decent candidate & run a GOOD campaign, they still could keep the office despite O'Bannon's sleep walking thru his tenure against most of the potential republican field. If managed correctly (which is the oft overlooked key) Indiana could be a blue state.

The rep candidate the dems would have the most difficult time against would be Mitch Daniels primarily because the Hoosier media refuses to report on anything remotely negative about him & tries to block any local coverage of any national coverage of anything negative. If somehow the Indy Star gets wind of the fact that a few people might have seen some NYT article that even was remotely unfavorable, the Star will whip up some editorial or story lavishing praise upon him & chiding those outsiders for being such meanies & so unfair.

Plus the juggernaut of Lilly $ + Bush $ would be formidable [which it would have been againts Bayh as well. Bayh is in the tank for Lilly too, but in a Bayh v. Daniels race, he would have been on the short end.]

Bayh is NOT a Democrat In Name Only, not by a long shot. He may be more conservative than some of us would like (and I think is thought of by some as more conservative than he really is because they compare him to his bleeding-heart liberal father), but Indiana is a conservative state where we should be thrilled to have a Senator, and DINO's don't get (as Bayh did in 2001) 100's from the ADA.

As for the other races mentioned:

MT-Martz is toast (budget, foot-in-mouth), the only question is to whom. Montana is still very much a two-party state at the local level (unlike the rest of the West, union presence is strong), and I think any of the above beat her. One caveat; apparently Congressman Rehberg is also considering the race, and while he'd probably win, there's a pretty good chance of those Democrats could win his House seat.

LA-I'm not even going to try.

NY-A case of foot-in-mouth. King is a decent guy (and I wouldn't really call him a moderate; he's conservative, but gets a moderate reputation from his hatred for Tom DeLay), but Schumer "too liberal" for New York? LOL. By NY standards, he's pretty damn moderate. If King wanted to run for the Senate, I can't understand why he's thinking about it now instead of 2000 (not sure he would've won, but he could've done a hell of a lott better than Lazio). If he does run, I wonder if we can take his House seat (it's a long shot, but if we have all the other Long Island seats it's certainly within reach-all depemds on the candidates).

PA-Good news. I can't see Specter losing in either race (unless BushRep is the exception, not the rule), but the threat of PA being represented in the Senate by Toomey and Ricky Mississippi, two guys who would be a good idealogical fit for, say, Idaho, will force the Democrats to put up a decent candidate, and even if Specter still wins, what would've been a non-race will at least be semi-competitive, and GOP money that could've gone to Illinois or North Carolina will have to be diverted to Pennsylvania.

SC-Who the hell is Mark McBride? The GOP will always throw everything they've got at Ole' Fritz, probably DeMinted, but if he didn't lose in '92 (when Tommy Hartnett pilloried him over his vote against the Gulf War) or '98 (when the cocky little nerd Bob Inglis basically ran against Clinton, who even Hollings admitted was "as popular as AIDS" in the state), I can't see him being in any real trouble now-especially since, with Strom gone, he's even more important to the state.

No, he really is that conservative.Its not an act. Plus he is spineless which he never failed to prove over & over again during his governorship.
Indiana is a lot like the country, its broken into red & blue sections. The red sections are larger, but have less population. the blue sections are smaller, but have more population. Demographically, it is trending more that way. It really shouldn't be a miracle to have a democratic senator, its just rtreated that way. Lots of issues & people are ignored.Bad decisions are made.

There was no excuse for Marion County not to have a democratic prosecutor in the last election. An open seat, coattails of Frank Anderson who kicked ass, Julia Carson, the Newman years left some negativity among certain people which was never exploited, etc., etc. But a Bayh person rigs the selection to chose a beyond poor candidate who campaigns poorly when campaigning at all, never gets funded or tries to fund himself, shoots himself in the foot more than he gets attacked by the otherside & thus looses to a Dan Burton clone (only he's dumber). This loss was not because Indiana is a conservative place & we can never hope to do better so we better thank our stars we are lucky enough to have Evan Bayh. This loss was stupid & preventable. Marion County is not the whole state, but there are a whole lot of dem votes here that are lost by those who think the state is too conservative to ask for them & so ask the republicans to share their votes which they naturally don't do.

Regarding IN: I think either Baron Hill of Seymour, or former Speaker John Gregg can hold O'Bannon's seat against Mitch Daniels or former Rep. McIntosh. I heard Indy Mayor Bart Peterson isn't interested in running, but Joe Andrew is. If Baron runs, I think we can still hold his seat, although it will be competitive. They did add Bloomington to the 9th district.

With LA: I think Lt. Gov Kathleen Blanco will be a formidable Dem candidate for Gov.
I heard the GOP field is Jay Blossman, state Sen. John Hainkel of NO, Terrell, and a state Sen. Collins (don't know his first name) from Metairie.

I think Blanco will be the frontrunner. A Democrat from Acadiana can beat any Republican from the St. Charles/uptown section of New Orleans. Plus I think Jefferson Parish Executive Tim Coulon a Republican will back Blanco, like he did with Landrieu, against Suzie Terrell.
Jefferson Parish includes Gretna and Metairie. Landrieu received 45% of the vote in this Parish, against a suburban Republican.

With NY, Schumer is a lock unless Giuliani gets in. If King runs the Dems may have a shot at his seat. Then we may be able to control all 4 Long Island seats!

With SC; the White House wants Rep. Jim DeMint of Greenville to run against ole Fritz. I heard Fritz is going to run. He finally gets to be senior Senator, and he wants it to be that way for at least another term. I also hear Rep. Joe Wilson is interested, but if the White House wants DeMint, the White House will get DeMint.
Former Rep. Bob Inglis of Greenville ran against Fritz and got killed in the low country of SC. They would be smart to run Tommy Hartnett against Fritz, but I still think Fritz survives.

"No, he really is that conservative.Its not an act."

From project vote smart (www.vote-smart.org):

2001: On the votes that the National Abortion Reproductive Rights Action League considered to be the most important in 2001, Senator Bayh voted their preferred position 100 percent of the time.

2001: On the votes that the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People considered to be the most important in 2001, Senator Bayh voted their preferred position 91 percent of the time.

2001: On the votes that the Human Rights Campaign considered to be the most important in 2001, Senator Bayh voted their preferred position 100 percent of the time.

2000: On the votes that the Consumer Federation of America considered to be the most important in 2000, Senator Bayh voted their preferred position 70 percent of the time.

2001: On the votes that the National Education Association considered to be the most important in 2001, Senator Bayh voted their preferred position 100 percent of the time.

2001: On the votes that the League of Conservation Voters considered to be the most important in 2001, Senator Bayh voted their preferred position 88 percent of the time.

2001: On the votes that the United Food & Commercial Workers considered to be the most important in 2001, Senator Bayh voted their preferred position 100 percent of the time.

2001: On the votes that the Transportation Communications Union considered to be the most important in 2001, Senator Bayh voted their preferred position 100 percent of the time.

2001: On the votes that the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers considered to be the most important in 2001, Senator Bayh voted their preferred position 88 percent of the time.

2001: On the votes that the Americans for Democratic Action considered to be the most important in 2001, Senator Bayh voted their preferred position 100 percent of the time.

***

I could go on. But I've made my point. Byah cannot by any stretch of the imagination be considered conservative. Byah occupies the center-left of the political spectrum, leaning more towards left than center. Next time, I suggest you check your facts before you denounce someone as a "Democrat in name only."

Word is that Suzie Terrell will not be running for governor. She may try for state attorney general, where she may find opposition from Landrieu once again, in the form of Mitch Landrieu, Mary's brother. John Hainkel may be a strong candidate but there seem to be a lot of N.O. area candidates. Kathleen Blanco can assemble the same kind of coalition that carried Mary in Dec. She has high positives and no negatives.

Zell has just announced that he won't run for re-election in 04. You can count on Georgia electing another redneck republican senator. Stick a fork in the state, its gone totally red(neck).

Toomey and Santorum would be a perfect fit for the Pennsylbama region (Pennsylvania minus Pittsburgh and Philly). They really are that conservative. The only way a Democrat can win in PA now is to run like Rendell.

To calculate how many seats te Democrats will win in 2004 is easy...wait until JB Armstrong makes a prediction then subtract six seats from the prediction

I don't think we'll see much change at all in the House or the Senate, a seat or a couple either way is all.

"A. Yellowstone Country Chairman Bill Kennedy (Is that where the park is?)"

Part of it (the park is huge)-it's split between Idaho, Wyoming and Montana, with most of it in Wyoming.

I wouldn't be so sure about Republicans picking up Zell's Senate seat. They should, but Republicans always follow up victories with inexpliacble setbacks, like losing a Senate seat to a liberal in 1986, failing to capture the Gov seat in 94, the Senate seat n 96, or the Gov race in 98. Then again, maybe the Republicans will finally go on a winning strike now that they're gotten the idea that Guy Millner won't win statewide. It's likely that one of Georgia's 8 GOP Congressmen will run. Mac Collins and Nathan Deal are strong possibilities. If I were Max Power Burns, I would run as well, since it could be tough to hold on to his House seat. Sam Brownback managed to get to the Senate after 1 term, so it could work for him.

Richard P-what do we know about Mitch Landrieu, and, if they were the two candidates in the runoff, would he follow his big sister's lead and beat her?

That's just early speculation about the state attorney general race. Terrell is looking at that because there are already too many people either running or thinking of running for governor and none of the ones who showed any positive results in this poll back in Dec. were Republican.

n a stunning turn of events, Sen. Trent Lott (R-Mississippi) was defeated in a vote for Senate majority leader by Indiana’s own Sen. Evan Bayh. Although last week’s election results gave the Republicans a two-vote majority in the Senate, it appears that GOP senators mistakenly identified Bayh as a member of their party and voted for him to lead the Senate.

“What do you mean Bayh’s not a Republican?” asked a flustered Sen. Thad Cochran (R- Mississippi) after the GOP caucus. “Hell, he’s to the right of Orrin Hatch on most issues.” Other senators blamed their confusion on Bayh’s quick and vocal support for President Bush’s plans to wage war on Iraq and the former Indiana governor’s career-long push for poor-punishing welfare reform policies.

According to a spokesman, Bayh was unwilling to comment on his surprise selection until polling data was available to inform him how the event affects his 2008 presidential election bid. http://www.nuvo.net/news/archive/001316.htm

Sorry you Bayh lovers, I think you have to have known him as long as I have & lived under his governance as I have to really know him. of course, by saying he was conservative, you might have thought that I meant he has a reasoned, articulated political philosphy such as, Dick Lugar, for example. Obviously, he doesn't . His conversatism is primarily doing what he perceives is best for him & is the least controversial & less likely to resound in media criticism. Sure, you give him some money or the chance to win support amongst a group of people & he might vote their way which you all would construe to mean that he philosphetically leans left or left moderate. But what you have to know is, what did it cost him? Was it controversial? Did it matter? Did he have to show any leadership or take a standard that wasn't polled & scripted? The only time he ever did anything that surprised me was when he voted against Ashcroft.

We had an astute political reporter in Indiana (Harrison Ullmann RIP)who used to claim that Evan Bayh & Steve Goldsmith were the same person. He used to call both of them Bayhsmith.

He will support any war Bush wants. He's voting for his tax plan. I just came from a confab of folks who have known Bayh along time & were pretty pissed off about his praise for Bush's tax plan. Everyone there was fearful that he's going to vote for Pickering.

Since you all have him in the fold, I'm begging you to tell him not to do it.

I know I'm jumping in late on this one, but just an add-on to the SC situation. Jim DeMint will be the GOP nominee for no other reason than Karl Rove. DeMint is the leader of the soak-the-poor idea that is slowly bubbling up among GOP ranks. He's also a rabid free trader in a state that has a fair amount of protectionist bent.

While it goes against my own belief in free trade, I think DeMint is beatable if a Dem can attack him credibly on trade issues. Normally, I'd say SC is going to go Republican with Hollings retiring, but if its DeMint ... I'll say we start off with a solid 50-50 chance there. Now ... to find a candidate.

Georgia - in 2004, black voter turnout will be high. The Dems should run Atlanta mayor Shirley Franklin for Miller's U.S. Senate seat. Bob Barr might run on the Republican side, and Franklin could easily defeat Barr if she runs a good campaign.

New York - a Republican needs to be closer to the center to defeat Schumer. I'm surprised that George Pataki or Mary Donohue isn't considering challenging Schumer. But I suspect they could be saving up their energy for 2006, to defeat Hillary Clinton. Another New York Republican who may challenge Hillary in '06 is New York mayor Mike Bloomberg, who is to the left of Pataki.

Peter Fitzgerald is toast in Illinois. A Democrat from Chicago will run and beat him (although Fitzgerald might not even survive the GOP primary).

Another GOP vulnerability might be Judd Gregg in New Hampshire. Especially if Shaheen makes a comeback.

And while Chuck Grassley is fairly popular in Iowa, Lieutenant Governor Sally Pederson could give Grassley a run for his money.

Anyone know if Voinovich is running for reelection in Ohio?

How about McCain? If he retires, there's an opening in Arizona.

I'm more concerned about Patty Murray in Washington. I heard that the White House wants Jennifer Dunn to run against her, and Dunn is a moderate Republican.

Wythe-intil further notice, we've got an SC candidate-Hollings.

Taegan Goddard reported yesterday that McCain is "all but certain" to run for re-election, while reporting today that the Club For Growth is actively recruiting a potential primary challenger-apparently, the head of CFG told Jeff Flake he could raise $1 million for him in a primary. Stay tuned.

As for Ohio, Voinovich has been mum so far. While very popular in the Buckeye State, he has a classic case of Chuck Robb Syndrome-successful executive, indifferent legislator-and there is speculation that he might be retiring. If he does run, the seat is off the table; if he doesn't, it's a very good chance for a Democratic pickup-I really can't see any Republican Sherrod Brown couldn't beat.

My bad ... was under the impression he was for sure hanging it up. We'll see how this goes in April, when he decides.

Hey Zell Miller is retiring. The Lt. Governor is a democrat and very popular too. His name is Mark Taylor. Hey anybody have anymore democratic candidates that the Democrats could reelect. I like MArk Taylor, I even callled his office the day of the retirement. Personally I would LOVE TO SEE JIMMY CARTER AS SENATOR. CARTER IN A LANDSLIDE. Please respond

I grew up in SC and Hollings has been jr. senator for 40 years. He isn't going to give up having that senior status so soon.

Hey, Iowa also is having a Senate seat up for election. The democrats should run Gov. Tom Vilsack against Senator Craig. The Governor could upset him.He is very popular.

Sorry guys it is Sen. Chuck Grassley not Craig. My mistake anyways Gov. Tom Vilsack could defeat him. Mayor Daley should run against Sen. Fitzgerald in ILL., Mosley Braun would go down in defeat and Jeanne Shaheen should run again in NH against Sen. Gregg. She had momentum this NOV and if she could repeat her brillant campaign, she could defeat Sen. Gregg. The democrats should run Rep. Matz Kaptur in Ohio, she is very popular.She could defeat Sen. Vionvich and with the help of labor unions should could upset him. Clinton won OHIO twice with the help of labor unions.

So who will challenge Barbara Boxer in California? Chris Cox? Bill Simon?
Maybe the GOP could recruit Todd Spitzer, the former Orange County Supervisor now an assemblyman. He would be their best candidate if he could become better known statewide (a longshot).

She is vulnerable--perceived as uberleft. I think she hangs on in a tight race. California is an interesting race. If there is one big state Bush doesn't carry in 2004, it will be California. Davis and the Dems here are already using the blame Bush strategy for Califonia's woes.

The Pickering nomination and other factors hinder a GOP comeback in the Golden State.

As for Ohio, the Democrats need to put more effort and organization into that state. It becomes crucial to any 2008 hopes assuming Bush is reelected.

I say it will be Richard Riordan or Mary Bono who challenges Barbara Boxer in 2004 (some people think Condoleezza Rice will, but Bush probably wants Rice as his next Secretary of State to replace Powell). Regardless, I think in the end Barbara Boxer will pull through. 2002 was an off-year midterm. California is overall heavily Democratic, and with high voter turnout for the General Election in 2004, Boxer will benefit from that momentum (especially if Dean is the nominee).

In Ohio, I'd go with Sherrod Brown or Stephanie Tubbs-Jones...unless Tubbs-Jones wants to hold out for the V.P. slot.

Vilsack would be a great choice to go up against Grassley too, but he may be holding out for a presidential run in 2008. If that's the case, then Pederson is the Democrats' woman. Otherwise, Vilsack could be tough for Grassley to beat.

I know it seems like a long-shot, but any chance of defeating Mike Crapo in Idaho or Bob Bennett in Utah (if a moderate Democrat runs against either of them)?

Crapo? No chance in hell. Bennett? Wouldn't beat him, but if he retires, it might be possible, aginst a subpar GOPer, for Jim Matheson to win the seat.