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Israel Knesset Elections

Mitzna, last week, stated that Labor would not join a national Government with Likud. The tactic came about as Labor continued polling at about 20 seats:

A Dahaf Institute poll published this past Monday (13th) predicted 32 to 33 seats for the Likud and only 20 for Labor. On the previous Friday (10th), the same company had forecast 28 for Likud and 21 to 22 for Labor. A New Wave poll had similar results, with Likud winning 32 seats compared to last week's 30, and Labor falling from 22 mandates to 20. Both polls had a 4.5 percent margin of error.

The poll numbers in Thursday's (16th) Ha'aretz found Labor falling from 24 mandates in its poll last week to only 20, and the Likud gaining from 27 to 30. In short, Likud has been damaged, they went from polling 40-something seats, to 27-30, but they have bounced back to 30-32. Sharon has less support than he did a month ago, and it's unclear where he will come up with the national government, but the Likud is still in the lead.

Mitzna has not "taken off in the surveys" or enjoyed the gung-ho support of his own party, not because he is not suitable, talented or eloquent, but for the very opposite reason: Because he is brave, says things clearly and is more solidly identified with the spirit of his party than all the meek conformers around him. Maybe he is too clear and too articulate in this sea of confusion, obtuseness and stupefaction.

Just a few days after Mitzna delivered his ultimatum, he has leading members of his party that are weakening his message. Mitzna is surround within the Labor leadership by a host of losers, no wonder so many are voting for Shinui & Meretz. And for those of you who wonder, the Israeli Green Party isn't happening.

J-Post is already writing off Mitzna's chances, Mitzna's best hope is to become a leader in these remaining two weeks. starting next week, he will embark on a whistle-stop tour of the country, visiting Labor party branches in an attempt to stir up election fever among activists. Israel is a small country. Mitzna is not that well known. Maybe his personality will rise above the small-mindedness that hitherto has dominated the Labor Party, and thwarted his rise.

What is clearly happening in Israel is that the other leftwing parties (Shinui & Meretz) have been polling in the double-digits, and are going to make gains at the expense of Labor:

A poll commissioned by the Likud Thursday (16th) night predicted that the Labor Party and Shinui would both end up with 18 mandates. This is the first time a poll found Labor to be in danger of becoming the third-largest faction in the Knesset. A Labor poll taken the same day predicted that Labor would receive 22 mandates and Shinui 17.

THe right-wingers are arguing that the reason for the Labor Party woes are because of what Mitzna is proposing (a two-state solution now), but then, why would the Shinui (a democratic, secular, Liberal, Zionist, peace-seeking party) be gaining at Likuds expense? Labor is polling less seats because of their being co-opted into Sharon's 2001 national alliance, alienating its' supporters (sounds familiar). However, most of the Labor Party refuses to believe this, and some are even trying to push aside Mitzna for Peres (if the Democratic Party in 2004 is brokered, we'll see this same thing occur by Gore supporters). The election is in a week, 20% of the voters are undecided.

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Jerome Armstrong on Jan 18 @ 9:03 PM | TrackBack
Comments

I think Mitzna is an impossible position. And it's not his fault. Labor so discredited itself by joining and staying in the "unity" government, after going out on a limb at Camp David, that it is not trusted. Nothing he could do would change that.

What needs to happen after next week's election is that the long-awaited formation of a social democratic party, comprised of the left of Labor, Meretz, the small left parties and a good portion of the Arab parties. Then present a clear, united alternative in advance of the next election, which could be within a year.

Posted by: Paleo on January 21, 2003 07:55 AM

shinui is not a "left" party, it is a an anti-religous "center" party. Shinui has made clear they are willing to serve in a Sharon government, just not with the religous parties. Labor's losses to Shinui more likely come from Labor's refusal to serve in a Sharon government than their earlier record of doing so. Polls in Israel regularly show the popularity of a "national unity" government. If Ben-Eliezer had been head of the party, Labor would likely be doing better, though still not enough to win.

Posted by: nightengale on January 21, 2003 09:10 AM

Every commentary I've seen shows Shiniu (a a democratic, secular, Liberal, Zionist, peace-seeking party) as part of the alliance that would side with Labor over Likud.

Labors losses happened before Mitzna announced that he would not be part of the Likud national government. They fell, initially, because of backing Sharon, and lately, because of dumb tactics around Sharon's debacles. Even Peres notes this-- everyone in Labor recongizes that they screwed up in joining Sharon's national gov't, it's just a matter of too little too late.

"Polls in Israel regularly show the popularity of a "national unity" government."

Yea, and polls in the US regularly show that widespread healthcare coverage is wanted-- but when it gets down to specifics, the generic evaporates.

It'll be interesting to see how it develops, my guess is it's even more fractured than before-- whatever national gov't comes out of the election.

Posted by: MyDD on January 21, 2003 09:48 AM

Israeli’s are illegally occupying a neighbor’s land. The racist acts of the Israelis should be embarrassing to a people who constantly claim to be victims of racism themselves. They are doing much worse than apartheid ever did in South Africa. They routinely settle (steal) land that belongs to someone else. They have shown themselves to be among the most oppressive and immoral people in the world. I personally am ashamed that my country would support Israel in any way.

Posted by: Tim on January 21, 2003 10:13 AM

Yes, I don't envision Shinui as part of a Social Democratic party. The party has a neo-liberal economic agends, however "left" its social agenda is.

As for Tim's comment, while I agree Israeli's occupation is illegal and immoral, I would hesitate to bandy about the term "racist." And there are hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Jews in Israel who strongly oppose these policies. Are they among the most "immoral people in the world"?

Posted by: Paleo on January 21, 2003 10:42 AM

Tim, you are hysterical and obviously have no knowledge of history to say what u said. Worse, you are clearly beyond being anti-Israel, you are an anti-semite. Glad to see you are on the side of Arafat. My guess is that most of the foreign policy decisions that American makes embarasses you too. Thank goodness our political leaders realize how wrong headed and ignorant your thinking is. Go back to school.

Posted by: Russell on January 21, 2003 07:02 PM

Just what the Democrats need here in America--a neo-liberal economic agenda
combined with social liberalism and freedom. I think many of the old-line
left wing parties around the world are
in trouble. Labor in Isreal is an example. (The SPD in Germany could be next.)

Posted by: mikeel on January 21, 2003 07:31 PM

Lapid has said that shinui will not be part of a left-wing government together with labor, meretz, and the Arab parties. Shinui is opposed to any negotiations until terrorism ends, and against negotiation with Arafat alltogether.

Posted by: nightengale on January 21, 2003 07:47 PM

I think you are confusing the leftwing with their avowed distaste of the rightwing, here is Lapid saying he will join with Likud/Labor:
http://www.arutzsheva.org/news.php3?id=37603

Posted by: MyDD on January 21, 2003 08:15 PM

Excellent digest of what's been going on; thank you for that.

Posted by: joe on January 21, 2003 09:29 PM

Russell, you show how quickly any criticism of Israel will result in a retaliation of "you are anti-Semitic." How sad.

I assume your comment on history is a reference to the Jewish historical claim to all the Palestinian land. I guess the Native Americans have claim to all of North America in your opinion too? Or maybe you think that all races should have claim to their land of origin? Or does that right just apply to the Jewish people?

Posted by: Tim on January 21, 2003 10:50 PM

Of course Lapid will join a Likud/Labor coalition. That would be a centrist national unity government. My point is that Shinui is a centrist party, not a left party, and would not joint a left wing government. Here is an op-ed in Haaretz by Gideon Levy that labels Shinui a right wing nationalist party. http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArtElection.jhtml?itemNo=243497

Posted by: nightengale on January 22, 2003 04:22 AM

You're right, Lapid is certainly playing the role of the chameleon, but given that it's Haaretz, which seems probably biased toward Mitzna from my reading, it seems more designed to knock down Shinui than anything else.

I've a heard time believing, despite what Lapid said, that he wouldn't join Labour and Meretz in a coalition, again playing the kingpin-- in the same way I have a hard time believing that Labour won't join a national government (as does Lapid). Just political positioning.

Posted by: MyDD on January 22, 2003 10:24 AM

Latest Haaretz poll (sorry can't access the link) has Likud at 31 seats, Labor at 19. The right-wing bloc at 66, the left-wing at 36, and the center at 18.

Looks like the fat lady is belting away.

Posted by: Paleo on January 22, 2003 12:28 PM

Tim, denying the Jews a right to a state of their own is anti-semitism. The sad thing is your inability to admit it. U can be anti-Isreal without being anti-Jewish. U however seem to be both.

Posted by: Russell on January 22, 2003 02:23 PM

No Russell, I say that the Israelis have no claim to the occupied Palestinian territories. The Israelis should pull back all their people into Israel and they would see the whole world get off their back. Are you denying the Palestinian people a state of their own?

Posted by: Tim on January 22, 2003 10:23 PM

When the Palestinian leadership stops acting like savages and when they stop celebrating suicide bombers and the 9-11 bombers, then maybe they can get a homeland. So far they show too much of a love for a culture of revenge and death. Sorry that you sympathize with them.

Posted by: Russell on January 23, 2003 09:20 PM

I admire a people who are face with far superior firepower, but will bravely fight their oppressors with their bare hands. They will resist the evil ones who enslave them and never give up the honorable fight. Just like the Jews never gave up their struggle to be free from their oppressors in ancient times, the Palestinians will not give up now when the Israelis are the tyrants. I am sorry for you Russell that you side with an obvious bully who abuses his weaker neighbor. How can you justify the occupation of the Palestinian territory, oppression of the people and the systematic theft of the Palestinian land by the Jewish settlers? Or will you even attempt to defend those terrible acts?

Posted by: Tim on January 24, 2003 10:46 AM
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