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Ruy Teixeira, in his latest edition of Public Opinion Watch:

But perhaps the most interesting danger sign for the Bush administration is declining support among youth. A staple of (usually data-less) political commentary these days is how enthralled young people are with Bush and his administration (for a particularly over-the-top example of this, see David Brooks's article, "The Collapse of the Dream Palaces," in the April 28 issue of The Weekly Standard, featuring "Joey Tabula-Rasa"--an entirely made-up youth!)

Well, if youth are really enthralled with Bush, they have a funny way of showing it. According to the latest Ipsos-Public Affairs poll, eighteen- to twenty-nine-year olds now feel, by 52 percent to 44 percent, that the country is off on the wrong track, rather than going in the right direction. That's a swing of twenty-two points from their 54 percent to 40 percent optimistic view of a month ago.

And, since the end of the Iraq war, Bush's approval rating among youth has declined from 59 percent to just 52 percent, with 47 percent disapproval. And check out these current approval ratings among youth on the economy (41 percent approval, 57 percent disapproval) and on domestic issues like health care, education, and the environment (42 percent approval, 57 percent disapproval).

They don't sound so enthralled to Public Opinion Watch. Maybe that's why Bush's hard-reelect number (those who definitely would vote to reelect Bush) among youth is now only 29 percent. That's a drop of eight points from one month ago. And, in the generic congressional vote, youth now give Democrats a stunning eighteen-point lead (52 percent to 34 percent), up eight points from a month ago.

As youth go, so goes the nation? We'll see.

Public Opinion Watch

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