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There's a great Trippi-quote article in TAP: Dean's Machine. In it, Garance Franke-Ruta implies that the meetup phenomenon perhaps doesn't have an impact in three key states that it's been hyped to have:

(Franke-Ruta's leads by showing the largest concentrated location of Dean supporters in DC, followed by NYC. However, this is the case for all of the candidates involved with Meetup (Kerry, Gephardt, Edwards, Lieberman, Graham... even Bush). I don't know what Franke-Ruta's point was about Dean here, but whatever it is about those two high-response rate locations, it has nothing to do with Dean in particular.)

...the early primary and caucus states, where Internet organizing might be expected to be of greater importance, had very low levels of Meetup registration. As of the last Meetup, Iowa had only 363 registered to Meetup for Dean, New Hampshire had 552 and South Carolina had 206... it somewhat undermines Trippi's earlier assessment in The New Republic that the Meetup organization, which was founded a year ago, would likely help Dean in the Iowa caucuses. "What do you do in a caucus? You go to a meeting," Trippi told TNR's Ryan Lizza.

I also argued that the meetup-as-caucus is a legit comparison-- mostly through the case of Washington State, not those three primary states mentioned by Franke-Ruta.

Franke-Ruta uses the relatively low number of Dean meetup numbers in IA, NH, SC to undermine the meetup-wins-caucus argument, but again, it lacks context. Compare Dean's very low levels very low levels of Meetup registration with the other candidates:

             IA        NH         SC

Kerry        10        22          6

Edwards      8         13          14 

Gephardt     5         4           3

Lieberman    1         1           1

Graham       0         0           0

Compared to those, Dean (363, 552, 206) looks hulkish; and btw, Graham looks pretty minor too...

Dean (who now has over 34,000 national meetup members) is now eyeing the internet's 1.4 million prize of moveon. More on meetup numbers: with the recent MTP by Clark that included the tip of the hat to the draftsites, Clark's meetup numbers (1315) have blown past Edwards (861) and will likely pass over Kerry's (1414) soon. This sort of eats into the main thesis of Franke-Ruta:

To political reporters, the Meetup phenomenon seems brand-new. And to the extent that the Internet is involved, it is. But if you've ever spent any time in the political precincts of the left -- where issue-advocacy, community-service and identity-based groups have flourished while support for the Democratic Party has withered -- you can see that the Meetup phenomenon is in fact drawing on and replicating the social dynamics of nonprofit and movement-based organizations that have, over the past three decades, become the dominant means of civic participation by people on the left.

Maybe that's the case in Washington DC, but then, Franke-Ruta is going to have to figure out a way to make an exception for Clark's numbers. Since when does a liberal concerned with issue-advocacy and identity-based groups turnout for a non-declared general who won't even say he's a Democrat, or, for that matter, a Doctor advocating fiscal responsibility and gun rights (we aren't all LGBT, Garance)? Nope, at worst, this seems like just another shot at boxing in Dean with the liberal meme; at best, it's a misunderstanding at what is the driving factor behind the meetup phenomenon for Dean. There's something else at play.

I would argue that the individuals (not all, but a significant percentage) attending the meetups are more inclined to have an independent streak, one that's highly agitated at both the Democratic and Republican parties in DC. You don't go to a meetup and hear laundry lists by interest groups, not at all. Instead, it's very pragmatic. It's got very little to do with the positions beyond a semblance of the principles, and everything to do with the voice in the messenger. Dean is talking straight, and taking on this elitist Republican administration that seems lock-step on cramming their agenda into law, regardless of other competing powers.

Bullshit does not fly on the internet, authenticity is the key. I'm not saying that Dean's every word is gold, but merely that he has something left in him that's got a core, which people can sense. And at that core, it's something that's not been sold out to a party. Dean and Clark (internet Draft) are the only players tapped in with this nuance, following up on McCain (Townhalls=meetups), and to an extent, Perot (grassroots getting him on the ballots in 50 states)-- and the reporters have yet to get it.

The fasted growing party in the US is neither the Republican nor the Democratic, but the non-aligned Independents. Now, even amongst this group, there is partisan voting behavior. Perhaps about 5% are truely independent. Regardless, people are sick and tired of voting in these politicians that represent stagnant ideological party positions, and want to vote for individuals. To the extent that this awakening happens within the Democratic party, great; because as McCain & then Jeffords show, there's no hope for the Republican party.

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